The June 2026 sentiment indices for China's textile and apparel wholesale markets show a modest uptick, but the underlying data reveals a more nuanced picture. The manager sentiment index rose to 49.78, while the tenant sentiment index edged up to 50.07, both hovering near the 50-point boom-bust line. This suggests a delicate balance between recovery signals and persistent operational pain points.
Market Operations: Foot Traffic and Store Openings Improve, Sales Flat
From the manager's perspective, June brought positive changes. The logistics shipment volume index and foot traffic index both rose by 0.64 points month-on-month, and the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 points. These indicators suggest a slow recovery in offline activity. Notably, 77.42% of markets reported flat total sales compared to May, indicating no further decline. The rent index remained at 50.65, showing that market operators are not resorting to price cuts to retain tenants. However, the business environment index fell 1.61 points to 51.94, reflecting cautiousness about the macro outlook.
Tenant Side: Rising Sales Mask Profit Erosion
Tenant-level data is more complex. The sales volume index rose 1.03 points to 50.14, a positive sign. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30, and the profitability index, though up 0.89 points, remained below the 50 threshold at 49.86. This suggests tenants are 'trading volume for price'—selling more but not necessarily making more profit. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, indicating rising cost pressure. The inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, showing slight inventory relief but remaining neutral.
E-commerce: A Stable Growth Driver
E-commerce performance stood out in June. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, up 0.64 points, while the tenant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 points. In terms of share, 22.58% of markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May, and 9.79% of tenants saw gains, up 8.42 points. E-commerce channels are becoming a key tool for tenants to stabilize sales and hedge against offline fluctuations. For buyers, monitoring these online channels could offer more flexible sourcing options.
Forward-Looking Indices: Confidence Remains Positive
Despite current pressures, industry participants are cautiously optimistic about July. The manager forward-looking index stands at 50.32, and the manager business environment outlook at 50.97. Tenant forward-looking indices are 50.84 and 50.84, respectively. All four exceed 50, and tenant expectations have actually risen month-on-month. This suggests that both market operators and tenants expect the recovery trend to continue, potentially making July, typically a slow season, more active than usual.