June 2026 data from China's textile and apparel wholesale markets offers a glimmer of recovery, though the warmth has yet to fully reach merchants' profit margins.
According to the latest monitoring by the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC), the manager sentiment index for June stood at 49.78, up 0.43 points from May, while the merchant sentiment index rose to 50.07, a 0.34-point month-on-month increase. The simultaneous uptick in both indices suggests the market is emerging from its recent trough.
Market-Side Recovery: Foot Traffic and Opening Rates Lead
From the manager perspective, the foot traffic index and logistics dispatch volume index both rose by 0.64 points in June, while the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 points. These metrics directly reflect increased terminal activity. The total business volume index remained flat compared to May, indicating that overall transaction volume has yet to expand significantly, but marginal improvement is evident.
Notably, the rental index edged up to 50.65, suggesting easing vacancy pressure. The e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 points month-on-month, underscoring the accelerating integration of online and offline channels. For merchants reliant on traditional wholesale channels, this shift demands a reassessment of their sales structure.
Merchant-Side Divergence: Sales Recover, Profits Lag
Merchant-level data paints a more nuanced picture. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14 in June, up 1.03 points from May—the month's brightest spot. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 points, and the profit index stood at 49.86, though 0.89 points higher than May, it remains below the 50 boom-bust line.
This pattern of "rising volume, falling prices" reflects recovering end-demand but fierce competition driving price wars. The comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points, indicating rising operational cost pressures. The inventory index rose to 50.00, up 0.21 points, suggesting some destocking progress but not full clearance.
E-Commerce as a Stabilizer
E-commerce sales performance stood out in June. 22.58% of market managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 points from May; 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales rise, a 8.42-point increase. Both e-commerce indices exceeded 50, signaling that online channels are becoming an indispensable growth driver for wholesale markets.
What does this mean for traditional wholesalers? When offline foot traffic recovers slower than e-commerce growth, merchants must proactively adjust channel strategies, treating e-commerce as an incremental source rather than a mere supplement.
H2 Outlook: Confidence Outpaces Reality
Looking ahead to July, both manager and merchant forecast indices remain above 50. The manager outlook index is 50.32, and the merchant outlook index is 50.84, both higher than current actual indices. This pattern of "expectations exceeding reality" is a classic sign of a market bottoming out in the textile industry cycle.
However, forecast indices diverged from May: manager confidence fell 2.91 points, while merchant confidence rose 0.70 points. This divergence may reflect managers' greater sensitivity to macro conditions, whereas frontline merchants focus more on marginal improvements in their own inventory and orders.