In June 2026, a survey by the China Cotton Association covering 1,904 farmers across 10 provinces and Xinjiang Autonomous Region showed that while the national cotton squaring rate reached 98.7%, unchanged from last year, the seedling quality rating saw a rare decline. Only 26.4% of farmers rated growth as good, down 17.7 percentage points year-on-year, and 32.8% rated it as normal, down 9.8 percentage points. This means over 70% of cotton fields failed to achieve ideal growth, signaling significant uncertainty for the new season's yield.
Weather Divergence: Heat Stress in Xinjiang vs. Waterlogging in the Yangtze Basin
Xinjiang, China's largest cotton-producing region, experienced persistent high temperatures and low rainfall in June. Accelerated moisture evaporation increased heat stress, leading to boll shedding and fewer bolls per plant. Only 22.9% of Xinjiang farmers rated seedlings as good, down 19.7 percentage points year-on-year. Lingering effects from cooler May temperatures further delayed development. In contrast, the Yangtze River basin suffered multiple heavy rain events, causing waterlogging in low-lying fields, increased boll shedding, and slower growth. The squaring rate there was only 76%, down 2.2 percentage points, with only 45% of farmers reporting good growth, down 18.4 percentage points, while 30.3% reported poor growth, up 12.7 percentage points.
The Yellow River basin enjoyed relatively favorable conditions, with timely rains alleviating drought and supporting seedling growth. Its squaring rate reached 88.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, and 68.3% of farmers rated growth as good, up 17.7 percentage points—making it the only major cotton region with improved growth. Gansu province also performed well, with only mild drought managed by drip irrigation.
Pest and Disease Pressure Intensifies
In June 2026, national cotton pest and disease levels were generally higher than last year. The proportion of fields with mild disease fell to 70.2%, down 19.4 percentage points, while those with mild insect damage dropped to 28.9%, down 20.9 percentage points. Fields with severe insect damage rose to 47.1%, up 4.2 percentage points. Major pests included aphids, spider mites, mirid bugs, and planthoppers.
Regionally, Xinjiang saw the worst insect pressure, with only 25.7% of fields mildly affected (down 23 percentage points) and 50.5% severely affected (up 5.2 percentage points). The Yangtze basin experienced slightly worse insect damage, with 48.8% of fields mildly affected (down 11.9 percentage points). The Yellow River basin remained the healthiest, with 65.3% of fields mildly diseased (up 4.3 percentage points) and 66.1% mildly affected by insects (up 11.5 percentage points).
Higher pest and disease pressure means increased input costs for farmers and potential quality volatility for downstream textile mills, tightening supply of high-grade cotton.
Implications for the Textile Supply Chain
The current seedling data signals a clear production risk. Xinjiang, accounting for nearly 90% of national output, faces continued heat stress in July, threatening boll development. The China Cotton Association has warned of persistent high temperatures and below-average rainfall in Xinjiang through July.
- For farmers: Concentrate on topping operations in early July, adopt high-frequency low-volume drip irrigation to mitigate heat, and intensify pest monitoring.
- For textile buyers: Adjust procurement strategies given the expected output downgrade for the 2026/27 season; increase use of imported cotton quotas or lock in forward orders.
- For traders: Weather premiums may push prices higher, but caution is needed against demand-side weakness.
Overall, the June 2026 seedling data serves as a wake-up call for the textile industry. With extreme weather becoming more frequent, supply chain stability faces ongoing tests, and companies must integrate weather risk management into their decision-making frameworks.