June's textile and apparel export data reveals a rare structural divergence: textile exports surged 12.2% year-on-year, while apparel exports grew only 3.2%. This contrast breaks market expectations of a broad recovery and sets the tone for the second half of the year.
Why Textile Exports Surged
Textile exports in June reached $13.52 billion, up 7.4% month-on-month and achieving double-digit annual growth. Data from China Customs on July 14 shows this is the fastest single-month growth since the second half of 2024. From a supply chain perspective, orders for chemical fiber yarn, grey fabric, and greige fabric concentrated in Q2, driven by:
- Increased demand for chemical fiber raw materials from India, Vietnam, and other producing countries.
- International brands advancing fabric orders for fall/winter collections by about two weeks.
- The renminbi remaining relatively low in June, boosting price competitiveness.
Notably, textile exports surpassed $13.5 billion after three months below $13 billion. Sustainability depends on downstream apparel demand recovery.
Apparel Still Struggling: Order Diversion and De-stocking
In contrast to textiles, apparel exports grew only 3.2% in June. Although month-on-month rose 21% to $15.75 billion, the cumulative first-half figure still declined 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a fragile recovery.
From a market perspective, EU and Japanese purchases of Chinese apparel have been slow to rebound, with some orders shifting to Bangladesh and Cambodia. The US market saw modest improvement, but brands maintain strict inventory controls, placing short-term and urgent orders lacking long-term stability.
For factories, this means disrupted order rhythms. The traditional 'long-order' model is being replaced by fragmented orders, complicating production scheduling and cost control. Raw material price volatility—especially polyester filament yarn experiencing two price hikes in June—further squeezed apparel manufacturers' margins.
Structural Concerns in Cumulative Data
First-half cumulative textile and apparel exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%. But by category, textile exports were $73 billion, up 3.5%; apparel exports were $72.96 billion, down 0.7%. This marks the first time in three years that textile exports surpassed apparel exports.
This 'intermediate goods strong, finished goods weak' structure reflects two trends: China's role in the global supply chain is shifting from finished goods manufacturing to intermediate goods supply, and apparel brands are diversifying sourcing strategies, eroding China's share in garment production.
For industrial clusters, Keqiao and Shengze—focused on fabrics—benefit from textile export growth, while Humen and Shishi—garment processing hubs—face greater transformation pressure.
H2 Outlook: Order Window and Risks
Q3 is traditionally the peak season for textile and apparel exports. August-September orders will determine the full-year trend. Key variables include:
- Inflation deceleration in Europe and the US, directly impacting apparel consumption budgets.
- Renminbi exchange rate trends; sustained appreciation would weaken export competitiveness.
- Chemical fiber raw material prices; further increases could delay downstream purchasing.
Based on current trends, textile exports may maintain 5%-8% growth in Q3, while apparel exports may only achieve low single-digit growth. Full-year exports are likely flat or slightly up from 2025.