The polyester DTY market sent a signal in mid-July: prices are stable but weak, with regional quotes diverging. Industry public data shows that on July 15, the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F, AA grade semi-dull low-elastic) in Shaoxing was 9,150 yuan/ton, while the same product in Hangzhou was 9,200 yuan/ton. The 50-yuan gap, though narrow, marks a new phase of upstream-downstream gaming for industry insiders tracking chemical fiber trends.
Industry Logic Behind Price Divergence
The pricing difference between Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber and Rongsheng Petrochemical reflects two distinct business strategies. Juxing, a small-to-medium enterprise in Shaoxing, prices closer to spot market transactions, reflecting concerns over weak orders from downstream weaving mills. Rongsheng, as an industry leader with vertical integration from PX to polyester filament, typically commands a premium to maintain brand pricing power.
On the raw material side, PTA and MEG prices have fluctuated narrowly recently, providing limited cost support. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the industrial value-added growth rate of the textile industry slowed to 3.2% in June, while garment exports fell 1.8% month-on-month. This means upstream cost increases cannot be smoothly passed downstream, squeezing polyester DTY profit margins.
Regional Capacity and Inventory Pressure Transmission
Shaoxing and Hangzhou are two major polyester filament production clusters in Zhejiang. Shaoxing hosts mostly small-to-medium chemical fiber enterprises, with products flowing to local and neighboring weaving clusters; Hangzhou concentrates large petrochemical-fiber integrated firms like Rongsheng and Hengyi, with wider product reach and higher export ratios.
The current price gap suggests that weaving mill operating rates in Shaoxing may be lower than expected, forcing small-to-medium plants to cut prices to maintain volume. Large Hangzhou companies have more diversified downstream clients, including some overseas orders, so their quotes are more resilient. However, if Shaoxing prices continue to weaken, Hangzhou firms may be forced to follow, triggering a price reassessment across the polyester DTY market.
For buyers, this regional divergence means structural differences in bargaining power. Shaoxing-origin goods suit cost-sensitive spot purchases, while Hangzhou-origin goods offer better quality stability and supply assurance.
Industry Trends and Outlook
Polyester DTY prices have hovered around 9,150-9,200 yuan/ton for about two weeks. Historically, this level is near the three-year low but has not yet hit the 2019 bottom. Industry data shows average inventory days at polyester plants are 12-15 days, moderately high.
On the demand side, grey fabric market turnover has slowed. Water-jet loom operating rates in major weaving clusters like Shengze and Keqiao have fallen to about 65%, down 3 percentage points from last month. Externally, the EU's new textile environmental regulations are about to take effect, prompting some European clients to reassess suppliers, slowing order placement in the short term.
Overall, polyester DTY prices are likely to remain in a narrow range in late July. If PTA prices drop significantly or downstream operating rates fall further, prices could break below 9,100 yuan/ton. Conversely, if fall/winter fabric stocking begins in August, prices may rebound modestly above 9,300 yuan/ton.