On July 15, spot prices of PET staple fiber in Jiangsu showed a clear upward signal, with a single-day increase of 30 yuan per ton, pushing the mainstream trading range to 7,450-7,650 yuan/ton, while the low-end price also firmed to around 7,400 yuan/ton. This shift is not an isolated fluctuation but a typical case of cost pressure transmission from upstream to downstream.
Cost Side: Geopolitical Conflicts Ignite Oil Prices, PTA-Staple Fiber Chain Resonates
The direct trigger for this price hike is the unusual movement in the international crude oil market. Escalating geopolitical conflicts have pushed up crude oil futures prices, and the raw materials for PET staple fiber—PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol)—both have naphtha or crude oil as upstream inputs, causing costs to bear pressure almost simultaneously. Industry public data shows that for every $1/barrel increase in crude oil, the production cost of PTA theoretically rises by about 35-40 yuan/ton, which then transmits to the staple fiber link by about 20-25 yuan/ton. The current 30 yuan/ton increase basically covers the cost increment corresponding to recent crude oil gains, indicating that factories are adopting a 'follow-up without lag' pricing strategy.
For staple fiber producers, this means a passive increase in the book value of raw material inventories, but it also squeezes processing profit margins—if end-user demand cannot absorb the higher prices simultaneously, enterprises will face the risk of 'high-cost raw materials, low-priced finished products.'
Regional Market: Jiangsu Quotes Lead the Rally, Low-End Supply Tightens Significantly
From the quotation structure, the price center shift in Jiangsu is not uniform. High-end quotes remain at 7,650 yuan/ton, but low-end quotes have clearly narrowed from the possible 7,300-7,350 yuan/ton range to around 7,400 yuan/ton. This pattern of 'low-end rising, high-end stable' usually means that low-priced supply in the market has been quickly absorbed, and sellers' bargaining power has increased.
As a major production area for PET staple fiber in China, price changes in Jiangsu often have a demonstration effect on surrounding markets like Shandong and Fujian. Buyers should be alert: if cost pressure continues, low-end quotes may move up further, and could even drive high-end quotes to break through the 7,700 yuan/ton mark.
Outlook: Cost Logic Dominates, Demand Remains the Variable
In the short term, the disruption of geopolitical factors on oil prices is uncertain, but the cost support logic for PET staple fiber is already quite clear. As long as crude oil remains at or above current levels, PTA and MEG prices will be hard to fall, and staple fiber prices will also have bottom support.
However, the sustainability of a cost-driven rally depends on downstream absorption capacity. Currently, the textile end-market—including yarn, fabric, and apparel segments—is on a slow recovery path in terms of orders, with limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials. If staple fiber prices continue to rise but the end-market cannot follow, traders may choose to reduce purchases and digest inventories, thereby capping the upside.