Chemical Fiber Leads Night Session Decline, Textile Raw Material Market Shows Divergence

The night session closing on July 15 showed a clear divergence among domestic futures contracts. Cotton 2609 settled at 16,145 points, up 0.44%, and cotton yarn 2609 closed at 22,580 points, up 0.29%. However, chemical fiber products were broadly weaker: PTA 2609 fell 2.55% to 5,648 points, bottle-grade chips 2609 dropped 1.90% to 7,028 points, and staple fiber 2609 declined 1.79% to 7,242 points.

This divergence reflects two distinct industrial logics. The rise in cotton products is more about supply-side stories: the expected reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area for the 2026/27 season, combined with weather disruptions in producing regions, has raised concerns about inventory levels before the new crop arrives. The decline in chemical fiber products, by contrast, points directly to weak demand.

Industrial Chain Divergence: Cotton Supported, Chemical Fiber Under Pressure

The synchronized decline of PTA and staple fiber follows a clear transmission path in the industrial chain. As a polyester raw material, PTA prices are directly influenced by crude oil and PX trends. Recently, international oil prices have shifted lower, and PX prices have followed suit, significantly weakening cost support for PTA. Meanwhile, downstream polyester operating rates remain at low levels, with polyester filament and staple fiber sales rates hovering between 50% and 60%, and factory inventories continuing to accumulate.

The nearly 1.8% decline in staple fiber is linked to PTA. Price promotions by staple fiber producers have had limited effect, as downstream weaving and texturing enterprises show weak purchasing willingness, adopting a buy-as-needed strategy. The nearly 2% drop in bottle-grade chips also reflects seasonal demand decline from the soft drink packaging sector.

The rise in cotton products is more expectation-driven. Cotton 2609 has found support above the 16,000-point level, with open interest rising steadily, indicating that long capital is still betting on a tightening supply-demand balance in the new season. Cotton yarn's gains are slightly weaker than cotton, suggesting that profit margins in the spinning sector have not improved significantly, and mills have limited tolerance for high-priced raw materials.

Market Signal: De-stocking Cycle May Have Begun

Historically, the synchronized sharp decline of PTA and staple fiber often signals the start of an active de-stocking phase in the polyester chain. Current polyester factory finished product inventories are generally above 20 days, higher than the same period in previous years, while terminal weaving orders show no clear recovery. This means the downward pressure on upstream prices may not yet be fully released.

For the cotton market, the rise in cotton and cotton yarn requires support from substantive downstream demand. Current textile mill operating rates are around 70%, but new orders are mostly short-term and small-lot, lacking sustainability. If the weakness in chemical fiber products spreads to the cotton sector, cotton prices may face correction risks.

Practical Recommendations

For Purchasers - For chemical fiber raw materials, consider waiting for further bottoming of PTA and staple fiber before replenishing; avoid large-scale stockpiling at current levels. - For cotton yarn, place orders on a need basis and monitor cotton 2609's fluctuation in the 16,000-16,200 range; if it breaks below 16,000, consider locking prices in batches. - Pay attention to downstream weaving operating rate changes in late July; if rates continue to decline, raw material prices still have room to fall.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include room for raw material price fluctuations in export order quotations; consider agreeing on price adjustment clauses with customers to avoid profit losses from sharp declines in PTA and similar materials. - Monitor the linkage between RMB exchange rates and crude oil prices; if oil continues to weaken, the export competitiveness of chemical fiber products may temporarily improve. - For cotton textile export orders, appropriately extend the price-locking period and use futures tools to hedge against raw material price increases.