Staple Fiber Spot Softens: Jiangsu Market's Single-Day Drop Signals New Cost-Bargaining Phase

On July 16, the spot price of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu market dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the main negotiation range falling to 7,450-7,600 yuan/ton and some low-end lots reaching around 7,350 yuan/ton. Although the single-day decline is not severe, its signal significance cannot be ignored against the backdrop of volatile upstream PTA costs and divergent downstream weaving operating rates.

Weakening Cost Support: PTA and PX Linkage Softens

The core anchor of staple fiber prices lies in upstream PTA. Recently, international crude oil prices have come under pressure amid shifting macroeconomic expectations, PX margins have been squeezed, and the spot processing fee for PTA has narrowed to around 300 yuan/ton. Although PTA plant maintenance schedules have caused some disruptions, overall supply remains ample, and the pace of social inventory drawdown has slowed. This cost weakness directly transmits to staple fiber: at current PTA spot prices, the theoretical production cost of staple fiber is around 7,300-7,400 yuan/ton, meaning the low-end price of 7,350 yuan/ton has already approached or even fallen below the cash cost line for some mills. If PTA prices continue to decline, staple fiber mills will face greater loss pressure, strengthening the incentive to cut production and support prices.

Supply-Demand Game: Divergent Operating Rates and Inventory Pressure

On the supply side, overall operating rates at staple fiber mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain around 80%, with some large plants maintaining full production due to relatively stable orders, while small and medium-sized mills have shown signs of reducing loads. In terms of inventory, the industry's average rights inventory stands at about 7-10 days, slightly accumulated from the beginning of the month. The demand side shows clear structural divergence: in the yarn market, sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn are uneven. Pure polyester yarn, due to competition from substitutes and weak end-apparel orders, is moving slower, and yarn mills are purchasing staple fiber mainly on a hand-to-mouth basis with little willingness to build stockpiles. In the weaving segment, operating rates for home textile grey fabrics in Nantong and Wujiang are still decent, but operating rates in garment fabric clusters like Keqiao and Shengze have fallen about 5 percentage points from earlier highs. This divergence has left the staple fiber spot market without a unified upward driver, and traders are mostly operating on a back-to-back basis, reluctant to build inventory proactively.

Price Outlook: Weak Volatility in Short Term, Focus on Production Cuts in Medium Term

Overall, the staple fiber spot price may still have room to probe lower within the 7,350-7,600 yuan/ton range, but the downside is limited. The core logic is: once the price falls below 7,300 yuan/ton, it will trigger more mills to cut production or schedule maintenance, at which point supply-side contraction will provide a new bottom for prices. Additionally, if unplanned maintenance occurs upstream in PTA or crude oil rebounds, cost-side support will quickly transmit upward. For buyers, the current price level is close to a phased bottom zone, but a clear stop-loss signal has not yet appeared. Therefore, a strategy of "building positions in batches and lowering average cost" is preferable to a one-time large replenishment.

Practical Recommendations

For Fabric Buyers - The current staple fiber price is at a mid-to-low level for the year. Consider purchasing in weekly batches based on your own inventory cycle to avoid chasing the bottom all at once. - Closely monitor mill maintenance announcements: if concentrated production cuts are reported in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, it suggests the price bottom has been confirmed, and you can increase purchase volumes. - When inquiring, prioritize locking in "delivered prices" over "ex-works prices" to hedge against hidden costs from recent logistics fee fluctuations.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting export orders, consider incorporating cost fluctuation risk for staple fiber into contract terms by setting price adjustment mechanisms or using short-term floating pricing. - Monitor the indirect impact of RMB exchange rate changes on imported PTA costs: if the RMB depreciates, the cost of imported PTA rises, which may drive up staple fiber prices, so communicate with customers in advance. - For competitive markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, the current decline in domestic staple fiber prices helps enhance export competitiveness. You can take on orders moderately but keep a tight control on payment terms.