7,500 yuan per ton — that was the benchmark spot price for Jiangsu polyester staple fiber on July 16, down 30 yuan from the previous day. Against the backdrop of widespread expectations that raw material prices had already bottomed out, this softening signal is particularly striking. More notably, the day's negotiation range widened to 7,450-7,600 yuan per ton, with the lowest transaction price hitting 7,350 yuan, reflecting sellers' weakening bargaining power.
Triple Pressures Behind the Price Easing
The decline in staple fiber prices first stems from the cost collapse of upstream PTA and MEG. In the past two weeks, volatile international oil prices have dragged down polyester raw material prices, significantly weakening the cost support for staple fiber production. Public data from the industry shows that spot PTA prices fell by more than 2% over the same period, directly compressing the pricing space for staple fiber.
Second, operating rates at downstream yarn and nonwoven fabric mills are generally low. According to China Customs data and industry surveys, export orders for terminal textile and apparel slowed at the end of the second quarter, with gray fabric inventory accumulation transmitting upstream, leading to staple fiber procurement being limited to essential needs, with speculative restocking nearly disappearing. This 'buy on rising, not on falling' psychology further exacerbates demand contraction in the current weak market.
Third, as a major domestic polyester staple fiber production area, Jiangsu has a high concentration of capacity and intense competition among enterprises. When leading mills first cut prices, small and medium manufacturers had to follow suit to maintain cash flow, creating a price stampede. The low price of 7,350 yuan per ton is already approaching the cost line for some enterprises, meaning that if prices continue to fall, production cuts or maintenance shutdowns will become inevitable choices.
Industrial Belt Transmission and Procurement Window Analysis
Jiangsu's staple fiber price fluctuations have always been a bellwether for the East China textile market. This price cut will directly impact raw material cost calculations for downstream weaving and home textile clusters in Shengze, Nantong, and Keqiao. For yarn companies using staple fiber as raw material, inventory values face the risk of shrinking, while finished product pricing is difficult to adjust downward simultaneously, squeezing profit margins from both sides.
Historically, July is typically a seasonal low season for the textile industry but also a period of preparation for second-half stocking. The current price level is about 5% lower than the average price at the beginning of the year, leading some buyers to make tentative inquiries. However, given the continued downward expectations for upstream raw materials and the absence of a clear inflection point in end demand, industry analysis leans toward the view that staple fiber prices may still oscillate in the 7,400-7,500 yuan per ton range. A true bottom signal will require either PTA stabilization or a concentrated downstream restocking event.