In June 2026, China's textile and apparel professional market sentiment indices showed a slight recovery. The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 points from the previous month, while the merchant sentiment index rose to 50.07, a 0.34-point increase. These figures, from industry public monitoring data, indicate that although the market is still near the boom-bust line, activity is slowly recovering, with merchant confidence turning positive first, signaling marginal improvement in downstream demand.
Market Operations: Stable Overall, with Local Highlights
From the manager side, the total business volume index remained flat month-on-month in June, while logistics volume and foot traffic indices both rose by 0.64 points. The store opening rate index also increased by 0.32 points. These data reflect a moderate recovery in physical store traffic and logistics. However, the business environment index fell by 1.61 points to 51.94, suggesting managers are cautious about the short-term macro business climate.
Merchant sentiment recovery was more structural. The sales volume index rose 1.03 points to 50.14, returning to expansion territory after two months. The profit index increased 0.89 points to 49.86, still below the threshold but narrowing the gap. Meanwhile, the average selling price index edged down 0.22 points to 49.30, and the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 points to 50.63, meaning merchants are facing a "volume up, price down" scenario with squeezed margins.
Profit Pressure vs. Inventory Improvement: A Tale of Two Extremes
June merchant data revealed clear contradictions. On one hand, the proportion of merchants with decreased sales rose 7.22 points to 18.18%, those with reduced profits increased 8.62 points to 19.58%, and those with lower selling prices surged 12.03 points to 18.88%. This indicates intensifying competition in the end market, especially with price wars impacting wholesale.
On the other hand, the inventory index recovered to 50.00, with the share of merchants reducing inventory up 8.44 points to 10.49%, showing some destocking progress. However, the cost index fell, and the proportion of merchants facing higher costs rose 6.99 points, highlighting that raw material and labor costs continue to erode profits. For fabric buyers and garment factories, this means suppliers may have less room for price concessions, requiring early order locking and attention to raw material price fluctuations.
E-commerce: The Stabilizer for the Market
E-commerce sales were the standout in June. The manager e-commerce index rose 0.64 points to 51.61, and the merchant index increased 0.35 points to 50.49, both firmly above the threshold. More importantly, the share of markets with increased e-commerce sales rose 6.45 points to 22.58%, while the merchant share surged 8.42 points to 9.79%.
This trend indicates that traditional textile markets are accelerating digital transformation. For home textiles and fabrics, e-commerce is no longer just a supplement but a core engine for stable growth. For small merchants, using livestreaming and mini-programs to directly reach end consumers can effectively hedge against offline traffic volatility.
Forecast Indices: Confidence for July, but Risks of Divergence
Despite a drop in the June business environment index, all forecast indices were above 50. The manager forecast index was 50.32, and the merchant forecast was 50.84, indicating optimism for July. This confidence likely stems from seasonal summer demand and post-e-commerce promotion effects.
However, a divergence is notable: manager confidence in the future business environment fell 1.93 points, while merchant confidence rose 0.77 points. This may reflect managers' concerns about macro policy and trade uncertainties, while frontline merchants feel the order recovery more directly.