Nylon Leads, PTA Under Pressure: The Industry Logic Behind Textile Raw Material Price Divergence in Mid-July

In mid-July, the textile raw material market is staging a tale of two extremes. Nylon POY surged 0.74% daily, while PTA fell 0.51%, widening their price gap. This is not a simple rotation but a signal of profit redistribution along the chain.

Nylon Camp Shows Strength

Nylon POY closed at 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from the previous day, with a year-on-year gain of 11.48%. Nylon DTY followed with a 0.25% rise to 15,800 yuan/ton, up 9.27% YoY. Nylon FDY remained flat but still gained 7.97% YoY. The strength in the nylon sector is mainly due to firm caprolactam prices and a phased recovery in downstream weaving orders. For buyers, this means cost support for nylon fabrics will be hard to loosen in the short term.

PTA Falls Alone: Dual Pressure from Costs and Supply-Demand

PTA was the only product with a daily decline, down 0.51% to 6,012.25 yuan/ton. Despite a 26.96% YoY increase, the short-term drop is noteworthy. The fall is directly linked to crude oil price fluctuations, ample PX supply, and a slight dip in polyester plant operating rates. Although polyester staple fiber edged up 0.12%, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY all stayed flat, indicating insufficient upward momentum in the polyester chain. For polyester fabric buyers, the PTA dip may offer a short procurement window.

Temperature Gap Between Natural and Synthetic Fibers

Cotton edged up 0.05% to 17,733.67 yuan/ton; cotton yarn 21S and 32S both held steady, with YoY gains of 6-7%. Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn also remained stable. Notably, raw silk fell 10.21% YoY, in stark contrast to synthetic fibers. This reflects a demand shift toward functional, easy-care fabrics, squeezing natural silk products. Meanwhile, spandex soared 22.34% YoY, indicating sustained strong demand for elastic fabrics, driven by sportswear and yoga wear.

Long-Term Trends Revealed by YoY Data

On a year-on-year basis, products with gains exceeding 20% include spandex (22.34%), acrylonitrile (21.20%), and PTA (26.96%). Their price drivers differ: spandex benefits from the clothing elasticity trend; acrylonitrile is constrained by tight propylene supply; and PTA is pushed by both crude oil and PX. Nylon POY (+11.48%) and polyester staple fiber (+12.26%) have more moderate gains, suggesting limited downstream acceptance of higher prices.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Nylon products face short-term upward pressure; maintain just-in-time procurement for nylon POY and DTY, and watch for a possible pullback at the end of July. - The PTA drop may loosen polyester filament prices later; consider delaying purchases of polyester FDY and POY, but beware of crude oil rebound risks. - With spandex prices high, negotiate quarterly price-lock agreements with suppliers or explore alternative elastic fiber options.

For Exporters - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export quotes, especially for nylon and spandex products; shorten quote validity to within 7 days. - The weak raw silk price is a boon for silk exports; use this opportunity to expand overseas markets, but monitor the risk of end-consumer downgrading. - Track PTA futures; if it breaks below 6,000 yuan/ton, consider forward hedging and raw material swaps for polyester export orders.