The June 2026 national textile and apparel professional market sentiment index, while not breaking the boom-bust line, showed a month-on-month recovery on both the manager and merchant sides, signaling a tentative bottoming out. The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points from May; the merchant sentiment index reached 50.07, entering expansion territory, indicating that micro-level business confidence is slowly recovering.
Market Operations: Total Volume Flat, Structure Diverges
Looking at sub-indices from the manager side, the total business volume index remained flat at 49.03 compared to the previous month, while logistics shipment volume, foot traffic, and store opening rate indices all recovered by 0.32 to 0.64 percentage points, suggesting improved physical market activity. However, the business environment index fell from 53.55 to 51.94, a drop of 1.61 percentage points, implying that management's assessment of the macro business environment has turned cautious. This contradiction—'warming on-site, cautious off-site'—reflects the uneven recovery of end-consumer demand.
On the merchant side, performance was more complex. The sales volume index rose to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points month-on-month, returning to expansion territory. Yet the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points. Rising sales with falling prices indicate that the market is undergoing a 'volume-for-price' adjustment, with destocking remaining the top priority. The profitability index recovered 0.89 percentage points from May but remained below the 50 boom-bust line, meaning merchants' profit margins did not improve in tandem with sales.
E-commerce: A Stabilizer for Countertrend Growth
E-commerce sales were the most notable bright spot in June. The manager e-commerce sales index registered 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. Both indices stood firmly above the boom-bust line, with growth rates significantly outperforming offline indicators. More importantly, 22.58% of professional markets reported increased e-commerce sales month-on-month, up 6.45 percentage points from May; on the merchant side, this ratio was 9.79%, up 8.42 percentage points.
This suggests that amid sluggish traditional wholesale channel growth, online distribution is becoming the primary pathway for textile and apparel professional markets to break through incremental growth. For merchants reliant on stall-based wholesale, the ability to effectively build an e-commerce distribution system will directly determine their inventory turnover and cash flow performance in the second half of the year.
Costs and Inventory: Pressure Eases, but Turning Point Not Yet Arrived
Cost-side pressures showed marginal improvement. The comprehensive cost index was 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points from May but still above 50, indicating that overall cost burdens on merchants have slightly eased. The inventory index was 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a slight acceleration in destocking. However, caution is needed when interpreting these reverse indices: a decline in the cost index means more merchants reported rising costs, while a rise in the inventory index corresponds to inventory reduction. Although both indices are above 50, the magnitude of increase is weak and insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
Forward-Looking Indices: Diverging Confidence, Managers More Cautious
Forward-looking indices showed a clear divergence between managers and merchants. Managers' expectations for the July sentiment index stood at 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points from the current period; merchants' expectations for the next period were 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points month-on-month. The downward revision by managers may reflect concerns about the traditional summer off-season and uncertainty in end-consumer demand; the upward revision by merchants is more likely based on short-term optimism from June's sales recovery.
This divergence is also reflected in the business environment expectations: managers' next-period business environment index fell 1.93 percentage points to 50.97, while merchants' rose 0.77 percentage points to 50.84. Management is typically more sensitive to policy, supply chain, and macro risks, so their weakening expectations warrant industry vigilance.