Nylon Leads, PTA Under Pressure: Analysis of Textile Raw Material Price Divergence in Mid-July

In mid-July, the textile raw material market sent a signal worth noting: nylon series products continued to strengthen, while PTA, the core of the polyester chain, bucked the trend. According to industry public data, on July 16, 2026, nylon POY rose 0.74% daily, followed by nylon DTY up 0.25%, while PTA fell 0.51% as the only decliner. The overall sector average edged up 0.04%, but beneath this seemingly calm surface, a deep game between upstream and downstream is unfolding.

Nylon vs. Polyester: Cost-Driven Divergence

The strength of nylon series is not isolated. Year-on-year, nylon POY is up 11.48%, and nylon DTY up 9.27%, closely tied to tight supply of caprolactam—several plants undergoing maintenance and delayed new capacity have kept nylon chip costs high. For downstream weaving mills, procurement costs for nylon fabrics are climbing rapidly, especially in outdoor sportswear and down jacket fabrics, where order negotiation margins have been squeezed.

In contrast, polyester series showed mixed signals. While polyester staple fiber edged up 0.12% daily, with a 12.26% YoY gain, polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) prices were flat, with YoY gains between 14% and 18%. This 'high-level consolidation' suggests the polyester market is at a tipping point between cost support and demand suppression. The drop in upstream PTA (down 0.51% daily, though up 26.96% YoY) is eroding polyester's cost base, while downstream mills, facing sluggish terminal apparel orders, have significantly reduced acceptance of high-priced raw materials.

PTA's Lone Decline: Inventory Pressure Meets Weak Demand

PTA's 0.51% drop contrasts sharply with its 26.96% YoY gain. The short-term correction is driven by two factors: first, after plant maintenance ended, operating rates rebounded above 80%, with social inventories accumulating for three consecutive weeks; second, downstream polyester mills are implementing production cuts—due to slowing textile and apparel export growth, polyester filament and staple fiber sales rates have remained below 90%, prompting some plants to reduce loads.

This means PTA's decline is not an isolated price correction but a concentrated reflection of the entire polyester chain's 'high operating rates, high inventories, weak demand' pattern. For polyester clusters in Shengze and Changxing, the easing of raw material costs may temporarily relieve pressure, but if terminal demand does not recover, this 'concession' will soon be offset by devaluation of finished goods inventories.

Cotton and Viscose: Undercurrents Beneath Stability

Cotton edged up 0.05% daily, with a 15.97% YoY gain, maintaining a high-level narrow range. This is offset by reserve cotton release policies—on one hand, domestic commercial cotton inventories are at multi-year lows with tight supply of high-quality cotton; on the other, expectations of import quota releases and sliding-scale tariff adjustments are curbing speculative buying. For the Nantong home textile cluster, this 'stability' is fragile: if weather factors cause production cuts before new cotton arrives, prices could break previous highs again.

Viscose staple fiber and spandex prices were flat, but YoY gains were 9.74% and 22.34% respectively. Spandex's high elasticity price trend is particularly noteworthy—as the core raw material for stretch fabrics, spandex prices have been rising over the past year, rigidly constraining export quotes for yoga wear and sports bras. Some foreign trade companies in Yiwu and Shaoxing report that spandex's share of total stretch fabric costs has risen from 12% to 18% year-on-year, severely squeezing profit margins.

Raw Silk's Lone Decline: Silk Industry's Cyclical Dilemma

Among all monitored varieties, raw silk was the only one with a negative YoY change, down 10.21%. This aligns with sluggish silk exports—in the first half of 2026, China's silk product export value fell about 8% YoY, hit by shrinking demand in Europe and the US and rising competition from India and Vietnam. The decline in cocoon and silk prices means a new round of 'production cut to support prices' pressure for farmers and reeling enterprises in Guangxi and Zhejiang.

Practical Recommendations

For Procurement Managers - Consider locking in Q3 long-term contracts for nylon; prices remain in an uptrend, but watch for new caprolactam capacity coming online, which could open a correction window in Q4. - Adopt batch purchasing for polyester raw materials; PTA's short-term weakness may lead to softer polyester prices, but avoid excessive bearishness—crude oil price volatility remains the biggest variable. - For spandex, prioritize suppliers willing to include price adjustment clauses to prevent order losses from raw material spikes.

For Foreign Trade Companies - For nylon fabric orders to European and American clients, include 'raw material price fluctuation surcharge' clauses, using nylon POY price as the adjustment benchmark. - Shift polyester export products toward Southeast Asian markets, where demand for mid-to-low-end polyester fabrics is still growing and price sensitivity is lower. - For raw silk and silk product exporters, accelerate development of blended fabrics to reduce pure silk proportion and hedge against raw material declines, while exploring emerging markets in the Middle East and Latin America.