The sentiment index for China's textile and apparel specialized markets saw a modest rebound in June 2026, but beneath the surface-level uptick, a structural divergence is unfolding. The manager sentiment index rose to 49.78, while the merchant sentiment index climbed to 50.07, both improving from May. Yet this does not signal a broad recovery—the average selling price and profit indices for merchants remain below the 50 boom-bust line, while cost pressures are quietly mounting, squeezing margins ever tighter.
Market Stabilizes, Merchant Strain Deepens
From the manager's perspective, June saw total market transaction volumes flat month-on-month, while logistics dispatch and foot traffic indices both edged up by 0.64 percentage points. The store opening rate also improved, suggesting that offline footfall and transaction activity are slowly recovering, with the overall operating environment stabilizing. But the merchant-side data paints a different picture: the sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, but the average selling price index languished at 49.30, and the profit index at 49.86—both key metrics remaining below the boom-bust line, indicating that merchants are "selling more but earning less."
More concerning is the cost side. The comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points in June, meaning more merchants reported rising operating costs. The inventory index rose to 50.00, suggesting a slight easing of inventory pressure, but this likely reflects discount-driven destocking rather than robust demand. In terms of proportions, 18.18% of merchants saw sales decline, and 19.58% saw profits fall—both ratios expanding from the previous month, underscoring that the merchant operating environment remains under pressure.
E-commerce Emerges as a Stabilizer
Against this backdrop, e-commerce sales data stood out sharply. The manager e-commerce sales index reached 51.61 in June, up 0.64 points from May, while the merchant e-commerce sales index came in at 50.49, also above 50. More critically, 22.58% of specialized markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; the corresponding figure for merchants rose 8.42 percentage points to 9.79%. E-commerce is becoming a crucial hedge against fluctuating offline footfall.
For buyers and factories, this means the traditional "wait-for-customers" model is losing efficiency. Online channels not only level geographic information asymmetries but also force merchants to become more agile in pricing and inventory management. Those who can quickly digitize products—whether fabrics or garments—and integrate into livestreaming or B2B platforms are gaining an extra growth engine.
Forecast Divergence: Caution for July
June's forecast indicators showed an interesting split: managers' expectations for the next period's sentiment and business environment dropped by 2.91 and 1.93 percentage points respectively, while merchants' expectations rose by 0.70 and 0.77 points. Although all four forecast indices remain above 50, managers' growing caution is noteworthy. Managers typically have a more macro view, encompassing rent, footfall, and logistics data; their declining outlook may signal an early reaction to the traditional slow season in the third quarter.
Merchants' rising expectations are more likely driven by marginal improvements in their own inventory and sales. But whether this confidence holds depends on end-consumer demand maintaining resilience through the July-August off-season. Historically, June marks the tail end of summer apparel procurement and the start of fall stock preparation. Merchants' improved outlook for July may be more seasonal restocking than a trend reversal.