Professional Market Sentiment Index Shows Modest Recovery, But Merchant Pressures Persist

In June 2026, the national textile and apparel professional market sentiment index showed a modest rebound, but internal data reveals a fragmented recovery. The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, yet still below the 50-point boom-bust line. The merchant sentiment index edged up 0.34 points to 50.07, barely entering expansion territory. These figures suggest the market is slowly climbing from its trough, but the foundation remains fragile.

Market Operations: Foot Traffic and Logistics Improve, Rents Stabilize

Breaking down the manager sub-indices, June showed localized improvements. The logistics volume index and foot traffic index both rose to 49.03, each up 0.64 points month-on-month, indicating a recovery in transaction activity. The store opening rate index reached 49.35, up 0.32 points, while the rent index hit 50.65, up 0.33 points, suggesting that vacancy pressure is easing and rent levels are stabilizing. The total business volume index remained flat at 49.03, reflecting no significant expansion in overall sales scale.

Notably, the e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 points, staying well above the boom-bust line. This means online channels are becoming a key stabilizer for professional markets, especially for small and medium-sized merchants who are using digital platforms to compensate for sluggish offline foot traffic.

Merchant Side: Sales Volume Up but Profitability Under Pressure

Data from the merchant side better reflects the realities on the ground. The sales volume index in June was 50.14, up 1.03 points month-on-month, returning to expansion territory for the first time in two months. However, the profitability index was only 49.86, and the average selling price index was 49.30, both below 50. This indicates that while merchants sold more goods, profit margins were further squeezed. Public industry data shows that 18.18% of merchants reported declining sales volumes, 19.58% saw profits fall, and 18.88% were forced to cut prices—all proportions rising significantly month-on-month.

On costs and inventory, the comprehensive cost index was 50.63, down 0.19 points, suggesting marginally increasing cost pressure. The inventory index was 50.00, up 0.21 points, indicating a slight easing of inventory pressure. However, both indices hover near the threshold, meaning merchants face a dilemma between controlling costs and clearing stock. For fabric and garment buyers, this implies suppliers may be more willing to offer price concessions to secure orders, but quality risks due to cost-cutting should not be ignored.

E-commerce: A Steady Source of Growth

The most positive signal in June came from e-commerce. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, both in expansion territory. 22.58% of professional market managers reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 points from the previous month; 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales rise, a significant increase of 8.42 points. This suggests that professional markets are making tangible progress in digital transformation, with e-commerce evolving from a supplementary channel to a core growth engine for some merchants.

For foreign trade companies and buyers, this trend means they can more efficiently connect with professional market merchants through online platforms, reducing intermediary costs. Additionally, e-commerce data provides a higher-frequency reference for judging market heat and category trends.

Outlook: Confidence Returns, But Caution Warranted

Despite the mixed actual performance in June, market participants' expectations have clearly improved. The forward-looking manager index was 50.32, and the forward-looking merchant index was 50.84, both above the boom-bust line. For the business environment, the manager forward index was 50.97, and the merchant forward index was 50.84, both up month-on-month. All four forward-looking indices are above 50, indicating strong confidence among both managers and merchants for July.

This confidence may stem from seasonal demand for summer goods, e-commerce promotional events, and continued macro-level consumption stimulus. However, caution is warranted: persistently low profitability and selling price indices may dampen merchants' willingness to restock and expand production. If final consumption fails to meet elevated expectations, the market could face a gap between high hopes and weak reality in July.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor merchants' e-commerce platforms to leverage online price comparison and sample requests, reducing on-site inspection costs. - Take advantage of current merchant willingness to offer discounts by placing larger orders to lock in lower prices, but strictly enforce quality checks. - Prioritize suppliers with higher inventory indices and lower cost pressure, as they are more likely to maintain stable delivery schedules.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Use professional market e-commerce channels for small trial orders and quick replenishment, reducing risks associated with long-cycle orders. - Track changes in rent and store opening rates, as these are leading indicators of market health. - Build cost fluctuation buffers into quotes, as rising cost pressure on merchants may eventually be passed through to export prices.