China's textile and apparel foreign trade in the first half of 2026 delivered a seemingly flat but actually divergent report card. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14 shows that total exports reached $145.96 billion from January to June, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4%. This number alone is not stunning, but its significance is amplified against the backdrop of high global inflation and geopolitical instability. What truly deserves industry attention is June's performance — exports hit $29.27 billion, surging 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year, signaling the official start of the overseas autumn/winter stocking season.
Upstream Intermediaries Show Resilience, Apparel Remains Under Pressure
Product structure divergence is the core characteristic of the first half. In USD terms, textile exports reached $73 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year, while apparel exports stood at $72.96 billion, down 0.7%. The two categories are nearly equal in scale but have completely different growth momentum. Within textiles, yarn exports grew 6.6%, fabric exports fell only 0.5%, and textile products rose 2.6%. In contrast, apparel and clothing accessories fell 1.6%.
This contrast reflects a fundamental shift in overseas brands' procurement strategies. International brands generally adopt low-inventory operations, reducing large long-term apparel orders and instead purchasing semi-finished products like yarn and fabric at higher frequency. For China's supply chain, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is that the apparel OEM track has low barriers, facing capacity diversion and price competition from Southeast Asia. The opportunity lies in upstream intermediates, where China possesses a complete one-stop supporting capability from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing, to finished products, making delivery efficiency and product quality difficult to replace in the short term. June's textile export growth of 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month is a concentrated reflection of this logic.
U.S. Market Becomes Largest Growth Engine, Traditional Markets Mixed
Looking at overseas market performance, global demand shows significant divergence. Data from the first five months clearly shows the U.S. market as the largest incremental source in the first half. After the China-U.S. summit stabilized bilateral relations, and with overseas brands' inventory destocking largely completed, buyers significantly increased procurement from China's supply chain. China's textile and apparel export growth to the U.S. expanded by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year, a particularly prominent figure in the overall stable foreign trade landscape.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continue to weaken. The EU is mired in inflation caused by high energy costs, with residents' willingness to spend on clothing declining. ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea are constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, with their imports of Chinese textiles and apparel falling simultaneously. The temporary easing of the Middle East situation and falling shipping costs were important short-term positive factors for June's overall export recovery, but their sustainability remains to be seen.
Profit Reality Under RMB Denomination and Exchange Rate Disturbance
Growth in USD terms does not fully reflect the actual profit companies receive. Converting to RMB, first-half cumulative textile and apparel exports reached 1.01222 trillion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year. Textiles were 506.42 billion yuan, down only 0.1%, showing strong resilience; apparel was 505.8 billion yuan, down 4.2%, putting significant profit pressure on garment manufacturers. Exchange rate fluctuations have caused notable disturbances in export data, meaning foreign trade enterprises need to place greater emphasis on exchange rate risk management when accepting orders.
June saw a synchronized recovery in RMB terms, with monthly exports hitting 200.25 billion yuan, rising both year-on-year and month-on-month. The fabric sector performed strongly, and although apparel fell slightly year-on-year, the over 20% month-on-month increase is sufficient to confirm real overseas procurement demand. For fabric and home textile companies relying on autumn/winter orders, this signal is particularly positive.
Outlook for H2: External Uncertainties Persist, Industrial Chain Advantage Remains the Backbone
Looking ahead to the second half, the external environment remains complex. The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face the triple challenges of high energy prices, inflationary pressure, and tightening overseas monetary policies. Weak recovery in end-consumer demand in Europe and the U.S., persistently high production costs, and capacity competition from fragmented global trade patterns will continue to test Chinese textile and apparel companies.
However, the industry is not without confidence. June's export rebound injects a dose of optimism for the second half and clearly points the way for transformation. The era of crude overseas expansion relying on low prices and volume is over. A complete industrial chain, product innovation capability, and diversified global layout are the core levers to navigate the cycle. Companies need to keenly capture changes in overseas procurement strategies, consolidate competitive advantages in upstream intermediates, and enhance the added value of the apparel segment through technological innovation and brand building.