Textile Raw Material Market Divergence: Acrylonitrile Leads Gains, PTA Faces Pressure

On July 17, 2026, the textile raw material market showed a subtle yet telling signal: among 17 major monitored varieties, only 2 posted gains while 5 declined, with the overall average price edging down 0.01%. Behind this seemingly calm surface lies a sharp divergence between two key raw materials: acrylonitrile, up 22.29% year-on-year, and PTA, which despite a 25.68% annual gain, led the day's losses. This data points to a core contradiction: upstream costs remain elevated, but downstream absorption capacity is loosening.

Event Background: The Logic Behind the Divergence

Acrylonitrile led with a 0.35% daily gain to 9,600 yuan/ton, up 22.29% year-on-year. Its strength is mainly due to supply-side constraints: concentrated maintenance at domestic acrylonitrile units and tight import availability. Downstream ABS resin and acrylic fiber sectors maintain high operating rates, providing rigid support. However, if maintenance units restart, prices may face correction by late Q3.

In stark contrast, PTA fell 0.44% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, despite a 25.68% annual rise. The weakness directly reflects weakened upstream PX cost support and rising polyester inventory. Recent international oil price volatility has dragged down PX, undermining PTA's cost anchor. Meanwhile, polyester plants have reduced operating rates due to summer power curbs and weak end-demand, cooling their appetite for PTA.

Among polyester filament yarns, POY fell 0.23%, DTY edged down 0.07%, and FDY was flat. POY's larger decline suggests downstream weavers prefer buying DTY to hedge against raw material volatility, showing a cautious outlook.

Industrial Impact: Ripple Effects on Regional Markets

Price movements hit key textile clusters differently. In Shengze and Changxing, water-jet loom mills relying on polyester filament yarn face margin compression from narrowing POY-DTY spreads. If PTA continues to fall, polyester filament cost support weakens, potentially triggering discount promotions and inventory depreciation risks.

For Keqiao and Nantong, focused on cotton blends and home textiles, cotton yarn prices held steady but raw cotton dipped 0.02%. The cotton market is in a tug-of-war between new acreage expectations and old stock, lacking directional drive. Raw silk fell 0.14% daily and 10.34% annually, indicating sustained weakness in high-end silk demand, with silk export orders yet to recover.

Spandex remained flat at 29,666.67 yuan/ton with a 22.34% annual gain. This stalemate reflects a tug-of-war between high upstream BDO/PTMEG costs and slowing demand for elastic fabrics. For knitting mills, the current price near the breakeven point warrants caution: if downstream garment orders disappoint, spandex may face a catch-down.

Practical Recommendations: Finding Certainty Amid Divergence

For Buyers - Acrylonitrile supply is tight short-term; consider adding 1-2 weeks of safety stock for existing orders but avoid chasing price spikes. Watch unit restarts in September. - PTA and polyester filament are in a downtrend; adopt a "batch pricing" strategy using futures to lock some forward costs. Avoid bulk fixed-price lock-ins. - Raw silk's deep year-on-year decline offers a potential entry point for silk product lines, but assess end-order sustainability before building positions.

For Mills - With narrowing POY-DTY spreads, draw-texturing mills should optimize product mix toward differentiated DTY (e.g., cationic, high-stretch) to avoid homogeneous price wars. - For downstream polyester plants using PTA, closely monitor the PX-naphtha spread. When it falls below $300/ton, PTA cost support may collapse, requiring inventory strategy adjustments. - Cotton mills can use basis trading to lower procurement costs while locking in yarn sales margins, leveraging futures-spot price differences.