In June 2026, China's textile and apparel professional market manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 points month-on-month. While still below the 50 boom-bust threshold, this marks the second consecutive monthly recovery. More notably, the merchant sentiment index crossed the 50 line to 50.07, up 0.34 points. The divergent trends between market operators and tenants reveal structural shifts underway.
Market Side: Flat Turnover, Improving Footfall
From the manager perspective, the total business volume index remained flat month-on-month in June, while the logistics dispatch volume index rose 0.64 points and footfall index also gained 0.64 points. This suggests more people and goods flowing through markets, but without a corresponding increase in transaction value—a classic 'busy but not profitable' scenario. The store opening rate index inched up 0.32 points, and rental index rose 0.33 points, indicating improved vacancy rates but limited rental elasticity.
The e-commerce sales index climbed to 51.61, up 0.64 points from May, staying above the 50 mark for several consecutive months. For traditional wholesale markets, online-offline integration is no longer optional. Stalls capable of handling livestreaming and social commerce are rapidly gaining share at the expense of pure offline operators.
Merchant Side: Sales Recover, Prices Under Pressure
Merchant data paints a more complex picture. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points; the profit index rose 0.89 points to 49.86. However, the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30, and the comprehensive cost index slipped 0.19 points to 50.63.
What does this imply? Merchants are cutting prices to drive volume, while cost pressures remain unabated. 18.18% of merchants reported a decline in sales volume, a 7.22-point increase from May; 19.58% saw reduced profits, up 8.62 points. Price wars are squeezing already-thin margins. The inventory index stabilized at 50.00, indicating decent destocking, but achieved at the expense of pricing.
E-commerce: From Supplementary to Primary Engine
The most striking variable in June's data came from e-commerce. 22.58% of market managers reported an increase in e-commerce sales, up 6.45 points from May; 9.79% of merchants also saw growth, an 8.42-point expansion. Both e-commerce indices remain above the boom-bust line with clear upward momentum.
For traditional wholesale merchants, e-commerce is no longer a trial initiative. Those leveraging short videos, livestreaming, and mini-programs for B2B or B2C conversions are winning more stable customer bases and faster turnover than pure offline peers. For those still relying on traditional sit-and-wait models, the squeeze from declining footfall and rising costs will only intensify.
Outlook: Managers Cautious, Merchants Optimistic
Forward-looking indicators reveal a divergence. Managers' expectation index for July stood at 50.32, down 2.91 points from June; the business environment expectation index fell 1.93 points to 50.97. In contrast, merchants' expectation index for July rose 0.70 points to 50.84, with the business environment expectation index also up 0.77 points.
As market operators, managers are more sensitive to macro conditions and aggregate consumer spending. Merchants, however, focus on inventory turnover and cash flow improvements. The gap in expectations underscores a shift from 'volume-driven' to 'micro-level self-rescue'—merchants are proactively adjusting strategies, while operators wait for external demand to recover.