In June 2026, the sentiment index for specialized textile and apparel markets across China rebounded, but the data reveals structural divergences beneath the surface. While both manager and merchant indices rose, profit and pricing indicators for merchants remained below the boom-bust line, and cost pressures intensified.
Market Recovery but Uneven Growth Drivers
Data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council shows that the manager sentiment index for June stood at 49.78, up 0.43 points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index rose 0.34 points to 50.07. Although the manager index remains below the 50 threshold, the upward trend indicates marginal improvement in the operating environment.
Sub-indices show that the total market turnover index was flat from the previous month, while logistics volume and foot traffic indices both increased by 0.64 points. The store opening rate index also edged higher. These figures suggest a slow recovery in physical market operations, but growth momentum is not yet broad-based. The rental index inched up 0.33 points to 50.65, indicating slightly stronger tenant willingness, though 93.55% of merchants reported unchanged rents, ruling out a general rental hike.
Merchant Profit Under Pressure, Cost-Price Spread Widens
Contrasting with the overall market recovery, merchants continued to face operational pressures. In June, the merchant sales volume index rose to 50.14, signaling increased sales, but the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30. The profit index stood at 49.86, up 0.89 points from May but still below the boom-bust line.
More concerning is the cost side. The comprehensive cost index declined 0.19 points to 50.63, still above the boom-bust line, but the downward trend warrants attention. Meanwhile, 6.99% of merchants reported higher operating costs, an increase of 6.99 percentage points from the previous month. Cost pressures are emerging while selling prices are falling, narrowing the cost-price spread and squeezing merchant margins.
On inventory, the inventory index was 50.00, up 0.21 points month-on-month. 10.49% of merchants saw inventory decrease, up 8.44 percentage points from May. Inventory pressure eased slightly, but the overall balance suggests no significant destocking acceleration.
E-commerce as a Stabilizer
Amid sluggish traditional offline channels, e-commerce sales emerged as a bright spot in June. The manager e-commerce sales index rose 0.64 points to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce index increased 0.35 points to 50.49, both above the boom-bust line and improving month-on-month.
22.58% of market managers reported higher e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May, while 9.79% of merchants saw e-commerce sales increase, up 8.42 percentage points. E-commerce is evolving from a supplementary channel to a stable growth driver for specialized market merchants. For wholesale-oriented textile and apparel markets, the trend toward online-offline integration is irreversible, and rising e-commerce share will directly impact inventory turnover and cash flow management.
July Confidence Diverges: Managers Cautious, Merchants Optimistic
Forecast indices show diverging expectations for July. The manager forward sentiment index fell 2.91 points to 50.32, and the forward business environment index dropped 1.93 points to 50.97. In contrast, the merchant forward sentiment index rose 0.70 points to 50.84, and the forward business environment index increased 0.77 points to 50.84.
This divergence may stem from different perspectives: managers focus on overall tenant recruitment, foot traffic, and rental pressures, while merchants are closer to terminal orders and sales changes. The improvement in merchant confidence likely reflects the June sales rebound and easing inventory pressure.