In the third week of July 2026, the price movements of textile commodities displayed a pronounced intra-sector divergence. Acrylonitrile surged 5.11% week-on-week, while cotton yarn 32S and 21S fell 0.60% and 0.57%, respectively. Raw silk, though only down 0.14% for the week, posted a year-on-year decline of 10.34%. This contrasting pattern underscores the fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics between the chemical fiber and cotton textile chains, signaling that procurement strategies for the second half of the year require structural adjustment.
Chemical Fiber Raw Materials: Cost-Driven with Resilient Demand
Acrylonitrile was the standout performer, rising from 9,133.33 yuan/ton at the start of the week to 9,600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. This surge is supported by tight upstream propylene supply and stable demand from downstream ABS and acrylic fiber sectors. For the textile industry, higher acrylonitrile prices will inevitably push up costs for acrylic yarn and carbon fiber precursor, forcing buyers to anticipate higher Q3 order quotes.
PTA rose 1.48% week-on-week, with a year-on-year gain of 25.68%, while polyester staple fiber climbed 1.30% (up 12.73% YoY). The strength in PTA and polyester staple fiber reflects firm PX costs and high operating rates in polyester production. Polyester DTY, POY, and FDY all posted weekly gains between 0.69% and 0.75%, with year-on-year increases exceeding 15%, indicating smooth price transmission along the filament chain. However, polyester yarn prices remained flat, suggesting that spinning mills have weaker bargaining power than upstream polymerization and filament producers, squeezing processing margins.
Cotton and Silk: Weak End Demand Pressures Raw Materials
In contrast to chemical fibers, cotton yarn 21S and 32S declined for a second consecutive week, with cumulative losses exceeding 1%. Although raw cotton prices edged up 0.13% to 17,729.33 yuan/ton (up 15.31% YoY), cotton yarn prices failed to follow, indicating that mills are discounting to reduce inventory amid weak orders. This is particularly evident in cotton clusters like Nantong (Jiangsu) and Weiqiao (Shandong), where small-to-medium mills have reduced operating rates from 80% in June to around 70%.
Raw silk prices fell 10.34% year-on-year, the only double-digit decline among monitored items. Lower cocoon purchase prices and sluggish demand from major export markets such as India and Europe are the main drags. Silk reeling mills in Guangxi and Zhejiang are facing inventory build-ups, with some opting to cut production or advance maintenance schedules. A quick reversal in the silk chain is unlikely, and foreign trade firms should monitor the recovery of European and US orders in H2.
Deeper Logic and Q3 Outlook
Of the 17 monitored commodities, 8 rose, 3 fell, and the average weekly change was +0.54%. While the headline appears mildly bullish, the divergence reveals two core tensions: the transmission blockage between rising upstream costs and weak downstream demand, and the structural split between chemical fiber and cotton textile chains due to different supply-demand fundamentals.
For chemical fibers, Q3 is traditionally a peak season, and with crude oil remaining elevated, PTA and polyester are likely to maintain a range-bound bullish trend. However, the rapid rise in acrylonitrile may trigger downstream resistance, warranting caution against a potential pullback. In cotton, supply tightens before the new crop arrives, but if apparel export data continues to disappoint, cotton yarn prices could face further downside. The silk sector faces dual pressures of inventory destocking and exchange rate volatility.