The July 17 bulk commodity price data reveals a clear signal: the textile raw material market is undergoing a structural divergence. Beneath an average daily change of -0.01%, individual varieties show distinct price trajectories.
Rising Varieties: Acrylonitrile and Polyester Staple Fiber
Acrylonitrile led gains with a 0.35% daily increase, reaching 9,600 yuan/ton, up 22.29% year-on-year. This trend is driven by sustained demand from downstream ABS resin and carbon fiber markets. More critically, the acrylonitrile capacity expansion cycle has not yet ended, with periodic supply tightness providing support. For acrylic fiber and high-value fabric makers, this means cost pressures will persist.
Polyester staple fiber rose 0.30% to 7,469.43 yuan/ton, up 12.73% year-on-year. Its gain logic is closely tied to cotton substitution. With cotton prices around 17,729 yuan/ton, up 15.31% year-on-year, the price gap between polyester staple and cotton remains wide, prompting spinners to increase polyester usage in blended yarns. This substitution demand is providing a floor for polyester staple prices, but the recovery pace of downstream grey fabric and garment orders remains a key variable.
Declining Varieties: PTA Leads Losses, Polyester Chain Under Pressure
PTA fell 0.44% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, the largest daily decline. Despite a 25.68% year-on-year gain, the intraday drop reflects concerns over weakening upstream PX cost support. More notably, PTA's decline directly transmitted to downstream polyester filament. Polyester POY fell 0.23% to 8,150 yuan/ton, and polyester DTY fell 0.07% to 9,237.50 yuan/ton. This suggests that profit margins from PTA to polyester filament are being squeezed, and polyester plant inventories may be rising.
For weaving mills, this is a subtle signal. If PTA continues to weaken, polyester filament prices will likely follow, giving end fabric buyers stronger bargaining power, especially given that polyester FDY prices are still up 18.45% year-on-year.
Raw Silk's Contrarian Decline: Silk Sector's Independent Cycle
Raw silk fell 0.14% to 425,100 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 10.34%, making it the only variety with a negative annual change. This is linked to recovering silkworm cocoon supply and slowing export growth of silk garments. Raw silk's independent movement indicates that the silk chain has not benefited from the general price rally in chemical fibers and faces its own supply-demand cycle pressures. For silk reeling enterprises in Guangxi and Zhejiang, profit margins are being squeezed, and industry consolidation may accelerate.
Flat Varieties: Cotton Yarn and Viscose Signal Wait-and-See
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices held steady at 23,333.33 yuan/ton and 24,725 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year gains of about 6.5%. Viscose staple fiber remained at 14,200 yuan/ton, up 9.74% year-on-year. The flat cotton yarn prices are a warning: despite cotton prices rising over 15% year-on-year, yarn price gains lag far behind, indicating severe margin erosion in the spinning segment. This reflects that terminal garment order recovery is insufficient to support yarn price increases, leaving spinners balancing costs and demand.