Acrylonitrile Leads Textile Raw Material Rally, Cotton Yarn Weakness Hints at Demand Divergence

Chemical fiber raw materials and cotton products moved in opposite directions in mid-July 2026. According to data from a domestic commodity monitoring platform, during the 28th week, eight textile commodities rose, three fell, with an average weekly change of 0.54%. However, the price divergence between categories is widening, signaling a structural shift rather than cyclical fluctuation.

Acrylonitrile and PTA: Cost-Driven Strong Performers

Acrylonitrile surged from 9,133 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, a weekly gain of 5.11% and a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. This sharp rise is driven by sustained strength in upstream propylene and synthetic ammonia prices, coupled with reduced supply from plant maintenance. For downstream industries like acrylic fiber and ABS resin, raw material costs will rise significantly in early Q3, forcing buyers to reassess inventory cycles.

PTA rose 1.48% to 5,986 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year gain of 25.68%. The rally is supported by firm PX prices and polyester operating rates above 80%. Polyester staple fiber followed with a 1.30% increase to 7,469 yuan/ton, while polyester DTY and POY rose 0.75% and 0.69%, respectively. The cost transmission chain from crude oil to PX, PTA, and polyester is fully active, and downstream polyester plants have not cut production significantly despite higher prices.

Cotton Yarn Weakness: Soft Demand and Substitution Effects

In stark contrast, cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 0.57% and 0.60%, respectively, becoming the week's biggest losers. The decline is not due to weaker cotton prices—raw cotton edged up 0.13% to 17,729 yuan/ton. The problem lies in the transmission between spinning and weaving. Weaving mills are facing insufficient orders, especially for conventional pure cotton products, leading some to cut output or switch to blended yarns.

The simultaneous strength of chemical fibers and weakness of cotton yarn is accelerating a shift: buyers are increasingly replacing pure cotton with polyester-cotton blends, rayon, or chemical filament. Viscose staple fiber and polyester yarn prices were flat this week, while cotton yarn fell, widening the cost advantage of blended products. For spinners relying on pure cotton orders, product mix adjustment is no longer a choice but a necessity.

Nylon and Spandex: Consolidation at High Levels

Nylon POY and DTY rose 0.74% and 0.25%, with year-on-year gains of around 11% and 9%. The nylon chain is relatively stable, but caprolactam supply disruptions remain a risk. Spandex prices held flat at 29,667 yuan/ton for several weeks, up 22.34% year-on-year. This consolidation reflects strong demand for stretch fabrics, but also means garment makers must carefully budget costs. Small-lot, high-frequency purchasing strategies will become more common.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - For acrylonitrile or PTA-related contracts, lock in Q3 mid-to-late orders before early August to avoid further price hikes due to maintenance season and peak demand expectations. - Cotton yarn purchases can be delayed; expect lower transaction prices in late July to early August as mills destock, but watch cotton futures volatility. - Explore cost-effective polyester-cotton blends and rayon products; they can reduce raw material costs by 5%-10% compared to pure cotton.

For Exporters - Include raw material price adjustment clauses in export quotes, especially for chemical fiber products involving acrylonitrile or PTA, to protect margins from further increases. - For European and American markets demanding sustainable fabrics, prioritize recycled polyester or Tencel products, which still command higher premiums than conventional fibers. - Monitor RMB exchange rate impact on cotton yarn import costs; if domestic-import spread widens, consider sourcing from India or Vietnam as alternatives.