The textile raw material market is undergoing a quiet divergence. The latest price monitoring on July 17 shows that among 17 major bulk textile commodities, only two posted a month-on-month increase, five declined, and the rest remained flat. The average daily change was -0.01%, seemingly calm, but the direction and magnitude of price movements among different varieties have sent clear signals to the entire supply chain.
Acrylonitrile and Polyester Staple Fiber: Upward Momentum Driven by Cost Support
Acrylonitrile led the gains with a 0.35% daily increase, reaching 9,600 yuan/ton, up 22.29% year-on-year. This price trend is closely linked to the firmness of upstream propylene prices and reflects sustained demand from non-textile sectors such as ABS resin and carbon fiber. For the textile industry, rising acrylonitrile means further cost pressure on acrylic fiber and acrylate spinning materials.
Polyester staple fiber rose 0.30% to 7,469.43 yuan/ton, up 12.73% year-on-year. The modest increase was supported by PTA cost and replenishment demand from some spinning mills. However, the gain is far smaller than that of its raw material PTA (25.68% YoY), indicating that downstream spinning mills have limited tolerance for price hikes and their profit margins are being squeezed.
PTA and Polyester Filament: Squeezed Between High Costs and Weak Demand
PTA fell 0.44% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, the largest daily decline. Despite a 25.68% year-on-year increase, the recent pullback has attracted market attention. The core reasons are: on one hand, the restart of previously maintained units has increased supply pressure; on the other hand, downstream polyester plant operating rates have loosened, weakening procurement willingness.
Polyester POY fell 0.23% to 8,150 yuan/ton, up 19.74% year-on-year. As an intermediate product in the polyester filament chain, POY prices directly reflect the health of the weaving sector. The decline in POY, coupled with weak performance in DTY (-0.07%) and flat FDY, suggests that end-use textile demand has not recovered as strongly as expected. Weaving mills are adopting a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy with little willingness to build inventories.
Raw Silk: The Only Major Decliner
Raw silk fell 0.14% to 425,100 yuan/ton, down 10.34% year-on-year. Among all monitored varieties, raw silk is the only one posting a double-digit decline. This is linked to the recovery of cocoon production and slowing consumption of silk fabrics. The persistent weakness in raw silk puts direct pressure on cocoon farmers and reeling enterprises in major producing areas such as Guangxi and Zhejiang, with some already operating at a loss.
Industry Implications of Price Divergence
Looking at the overall structure, the textile raw material market is characterized by “divergence upstream, caution downstream.” Chemical fiber raw materials (such as acrylonitrile and PTA) are highly sensitive to international oil price fluctuations and their own supply-demand dynamics, showing high price elasticity. In contrast, cotton yarn and rayon yarn are stuck in a stalemate due to insufficient terminal orders.
For textile enterprises, the most critical risk at this stage is the “scissors gap” between cost-driven price increases and demand-deficient price declines. If downstream orders cannot keep pace with raw material price hikes, the midstream weaving and dyeing sectors will bear the brunt, leading to a situation of “rising revenue but not profit.”