The latest monitoring data from the China National Textile and Apparel Council reveals subtle shifts in the June 2026 sentiment index for textile and apparel professional markets. The management sentiment index rose to 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index edged up to 50.07, a 0.34 percentage point increase. While both sets of data appear to indicate a synchronized recovery, a deeper dive into sub-indicators reveals a clear divergence within the industry—the restoration of confidence on the management side has not fully translated into improved profit margins for merchants.
Management: Improved Operations but Fragile Confidence
From the management perspective, June showed positive signs of market recovery. The logistics shipment volume index and foot traffic index both rose by 0.64 percentage points from the previous month, and the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points. This indicates that offline foot traffic and logistics in professional markets are recovering, and the fundamentals of market operations are improving. Notably, the e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, 0.64 percentage points above the boom-bust line, suggesting that the omni-channel strategy is gaining traction at the market level.
However, the business environment index fell from 53.55 in May to 51.94, a decline of 1.61 percentage points. This contrast suggests that despite short-term operational improvements, management remains cautious about the medium- to long-term market environment. The total operating amount index remained flat at 49.03, below 50, indicating no substantial growth in overall sales, with the recovery more focused on traffic and operational efficiency.
Merchants: Sales Recover but Profits Remain Squeezed
Merchant-side data reveals a more complex picture. The June sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points month-on-month, returning above the boom-bust line and signaling a recovery in end-market sales. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points; the profit index stood at 49.86, up 0.89 percentage points from the previous month but still below 50. This combination of rising sales, falling prices, and thin margins is a classic sign of intensifying price competition in the textile and apparel industry.
More concerning is the cost side. The comprehensive cost index fell from 50.82 in May to 50.63, down 0.19 percentage points, indicating rising cost pressure for merchants. Meanwhile, the inventory index rose to 50.00, up 0.21 percentage points, suggesting some relief in destocking but not yet translating into pricing power. 18.88% of merchants reported declining selling prices, a sharp increase of 12.03 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported reduced profits, up 8.62 percentage points. These figures clearly point to a "growth without profit" dilemma for merchants.
E-commerce: The Only Certain Growth Engine
Against this backdrop of overall pressure, e-commerce channels have performed notably well. In June, 22.58% of professional markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from the previous month; the proportion of merchants with increased e-commerce sales reached 9.79%, up 8.42 percentage points. Both the management e-commerce sales index and the merchant e-commerce sales index remained above the boom-bust line, at 51.61 and 50.49 respectively. E-commerce is no longer a supplementary channel but a primary pillar for many merchants to maintain sales volumes.
The implication for buyers and factories is clear: the depth of online channel deployment will directly determine a company's survival ability during off-peak seasons. Merchants relying solely on offline wholesale face greater inventory and cash flow risks amid slow foot traffic recovery.
Forward-Looking Indicators: Market Sentiment Diverges
Forward-looking indicators show a clear divergence in expectations for July between management and merchants. The management forward sentiment index stood at 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points from the previous month; the forward business environment index was 50.97, down 1.93 percentage points. In contrast, the merchant forward sentiment index was 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points, and the forward business environment index was also 50.84, up 0.77 percentage points. Merchants are more confident about the coming month, likely due to seasonal demand from summer clothing turnover and autumn apparel preparation; management's caution reflects uncertainty about macroeconomic and consumption recovery pace.