The textile raw material market is witnessing a tale of two extremes. On July 17, acrylonitrile led the daily gains with a 0.35% increase, while PTA posted the largest drop at -0.44%. Behind this divergence lies a significant fragmentation in cost transmission along the supply chain, with distinct impacts on midstream polyester filaments, staple fibers, and downstream weaving sectors.
According to publicly available industry data, only two commodities in the textile sector posted gains on the day, while five declined, resulting in a daily average change of -0.01%. On the surface, the market appears stable, but beneath lies considerable turbulence. Acrylonitrile prices held firm at CNY 9,600 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 22.29%. In contrast, raw silk prices fell 10.34% year-on-year, making it the only commodity in negative territory, reflecting weak demand for high-end silk products.
Upstream Cost Transmission Faces Disruption
The short-term weakness in PTA prices deserves attention. Although PTA still shows a year-on-year gain of 25.68%, its daily decline of 0.44% has outpaced that of polyester POY (-0.23%). This suggests that the price easing at the PTA level has not fully passed through to downstream polyester filaments. Polyester FDY and DTY prices remained flat on the day, while polyester staple fiber even edged up 0.30%. This 'upstream down, downstream stable' pattern indicates that polyester filament mills are actively absorbing raw material cost savings to protect their own margins.
For acrylonitrile, the 0.35% daily gain may seem modest, but combined with its 22.29% year-on-year surge, it signals a persistent supply-demand tightness. As a key feedstock for acrylic fibers, ABS resin, and carbon fiber, acrylonitrile's price strength is likely to further squeeze margins for downstream acrylic yarn and blended products. The Texcircle editorial team notes that while spandex prices were flat on the day, its year-on-year gain of 22.34% ties with acrylonitrile as the biggest risers of the year.
Cotton vs. Chemical Fiber: A Seesaw Effect
Cotton prices edged down 0.02% to CNY 17,729.33 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were unchanged, indicating a temporary balance in the cotton textile chain at current levels. Viscose staple fiber prices held at CNY 14,200 per ton, up 9.74% year-on-year, while rayon yarn stayed at CNY 17,925 per ton. The price gap between chemical fibers and cotton is narrowing: polyester staple fiber is up 12.73% year-on-year, while cotton yarn has risen only 6.71%. The substitution advantage of chemical fibers over cotton is gradually eroding.
What does this mean for buyers? If the price gap between polyester staple fiber and cotton yarn continues to shrink, blended fabric producers may adjust their formulations to increase cotton content and reduce polyester usage. Meanwhile, polyester POY's 19.74% year-on-year gain and polyester DTY's 15.38% increase suggest that cost pressure on chemical fiber fabrics is significantly higher than on cotton fabrics. This could shift autumn/winter fabric orders toward cotton or viscose-based products.
Raw Silk's Contrarian Decline: An Industrial Signal
Raw silk prices fell 10.34% year-on-year, the only negative reading in the entire basket. As the core raw material for high-end silk fabrics, raw silk's weakness directly reflects declining consumer acceptance of premium silk products. Slowing global luxury retail sales and increasingly rational domestic consumption are compressing demand for silk fabrics. For the silk industry clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces (such as Huzhou and Hangzhou), this is a warning signal: second-half silk orders may remain under pressure, and mills should proactively adjust product mixes toward blended or rayon-based products.