Brent crude experienced a sharp V-shaped reversal during the trading session on July 17, falling below $83 before closing at $85.81, a daily gain of over 2%. WTI also rebounded from a low of $78.66 to above $81, with an intraday range of nearly $3. For the textile industry, this is more than an energy headline—it is a clear cost signal that the pricing center for petrochemical-based raw materials is being re-anchored.
The Logic of Cost Transmission
Crude oil is the starting point of the polyester chain. From naphtha to PX (paraxylene), then to PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and MEG (monoethylene glycol), finally polymerizing into PET (polyethylene terephthalate) and spinning into polyester filament or staple fiber, the entire chain's price elasticity is highly dependent on oil fluctuations. Public industry data indicates that every $1/barrel change in crude oil affects PTA costs by about 35-40 yuan/ton, and the impact on polyester POY (partially oriented yarn) costs amplifies to 50-60 yuan/ton. This means that Brent's rebound of nearly $3 from its low theoretically pushes polyester filament costs up by 150-180 yuan/ton.
Notably, this cost transmission is not instantaneous. Polyester plants typically hold 2-3 weeks of raw material inventory, and the futures markets for PTA and MEG will price in expectations first. However, once oil stabilizes at a key level like $85, the purchasing psychology of downstream weaving and fabric companies undergoes a substantive shift—from 'waiting for a drop' to 'locking in prices and restocking.'
Immediate Reactions in Industrial Clusters
From Keqiao to Shengze, from Changle to Nantong, inquiry activity in various textile clusters heated up rapidly after the oil price anomaly. According to industry channel feedback, on the night of July 17, some polyester plants in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region began to tighten discount policies, with tentative price increases of 50-100 yuan/ton for polyester DTY (drawn textured yarn). This reaction is not panic-driven but based on a fundamental judgment: current polyester processing spreads are at year-to-date lows, leaving factories with little room for further concessions.
For weaving enterprises, this oil price surge coincides with the critical window for autumn/winter fabric stocking. In previous years, late July was typically when orders were finalized. This year, due to a slower-than-expected recovery in end-consumer demand, most companies hold high inventory levels of 20-30 days. The sudden cost increase expectation from oil may force some companies to advance their replenishment schedules, triggering a chain reaction of 'rushing orders, locking prices, and destocking' in the short term.
The Multiple Game of Foreign Trade and Exchange Rates
This oil price rally coincides with fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. For textile foreign trade orders denominated in USD, rising crude costs mean fabric quotations need to rise accordingly, but overseas buyers' acceptance of price increases varies significantly. European markets, due to the high base effect after the energy crisis, are more price-sensitive, while Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern clients prioritize delivery cycles and quality stability.
China Customs data shows that textile and apparel exports grew by about 4.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, but the average unit price of polyester fabric exports edged down 0.8% year-on-year. This indicates that in intense international competition, the ability to pass on costs has weakened compared to two years ago. If oil remains above $85, export companies will face a dilemma: either compress profit margins to maintain orders or raise prices and risk losing market share.