In the third week of July 2026, the textile raw material market once again staged a script of 'upstream carnival, downstream pressure.' Acrylonitrile surged 5.11% week-on-week, with PTA and polyester staple fiber rising 1.48% and 1.30% respectively, while cotton yarn 32S and 21S bucked the trend, falling over 0.5%. Behind these figures lies a fierce tug-of-war between cost-push from raw materials and sluggish end-user demand.
Upstream: Acrylonitrile Leads, Chemical Fiber Chain Rises Broadly
Acrylonitrile became the week's strongest performer with a 5.11% weekly gain, closing at 9,600 yuan/ton, up 22.29% year-on-year. This rally is driven by three factors: first, some domestic acrylonitrile units entered maintenance season, tightening supply; second, upstream propylene prices remained high on crude oil support, allowing smooth cost transmission; third, stable demand from downstream ABS resin and carbon fiber sectors, with buyers showing increased acceptance of higher prices.
PTA rose 1.48% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 25.68%, hitting a new high for the year. PX cost support and polyester operating rates above 85% were the core reasons. Polyester staple fiber followed with a 1.30% gain to 7,469.43 yuan/ton, but notably, polyester yarn prices were flat for the week, indicating downstream weaving mills' ability to absorb raw material cost increases is nearing its limit.
Nylon series products posted modest gains, with POY and DTY up 0.74% and 0.25% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.48% and 9.27%. Nylon FDY was flat, reflecting a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the civil yarn market. Cotton lint edged up 0.13% to 17,729.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern.
Downstream: Cotton Yarn Under Pressure, Clear Signal of Weak End Demand
In stark contrast to the broad upstream rally, cotton yarn 21S and 32S fell 0.57% and 0.60% respectively, becoming the week's biggest losers. The weakening of cotton yarn prices directly reflects sluggish orders from downstream weaving and apparel sectors. Currently in the traditional off-season for textiles, coupled with ongoing destocking cycles in major overseas markets, gray fabric and fabric enterprises are reluctant to purchase, leading to continuous inventory accumulation in yarn mills.
Raw silk fell 0.14% to 425,100 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 10.34%, making it the only variety with a negative annual comparison this week. This reflects persistent supply-demand imbalance in the cocoon and silk industry: stable spring cocoon production but insufficient orders for silk reeling mills and silk fabric enterprises, keeping raw silk prices under prolonged pressure.
Viscose staple fiber, rayon yarn, and spandex prices were flat for the week, indicating a stalemate in these sectors. Although spandex's year-on-year increase reached 22.34%, its gains have narrowed in recent weeks, suggesting slowing growth in downstream elastic fabric demand.
Chain Transmission: Profits Concentrate Upstream, Downstream Faces Cost and Demand Squeeze
This week's data reveals a core contradiction: upstream raw material prices continue to rise on cost push and supply contraction, while downstream yarn and fabric segments cannot follow suit due to insufficient end demand. This means industry profits are accelerating toward the upstream, leaving midstream and downstream enterprises caught in a scissors gap between rising input costs and stagnant product prices.
For buyers, strategies need to be more refined. The strength in acrylonitrile and PTA may persist into the third quarter, but the weakness in cotton yarn suggests that end-demand recovery still needs time. It is recommended that downstream companies increase raw material inventories appropriately to hedge against price hikes, while locking in some costs through long-term contracts.