The textile raw material market showed clear signs of divergence in mid-July. Public industry data reveals that on July 17, bulk commodity prices in the textile sector experienced mixed movements, with an overall average daily change of only -0.01%. Beneath this seemingly calm surface, the trends of different categories are diverging.
On the gainers' list, acrylonitrile led with a 0.35% daily increase, reaching 9,600 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year surge of 22.29%, indicating persistently tight supply. Polyester staple fiber followed with a 0.30% daily rise to 7,469.43 yuan/ton, up 12.73% year-on-year, showing decent demand support.
Price Divergence: PTA and Raw Silk Under Pressure
On the decliners' list, PTA fell 0.44% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton. Despite a 25.68% year-on-year gain, the daily weakness suggests short-term resistance. Polyester POY dropped 0.23%, and raw silk fell 0.14%, the latter even recording a 10.34% year-on-year decline, reflecting weak demand for silk-based raw materials.
Cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices were flat. Viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, polyester FDY, and nylon series showed no movement. Cotton lint edged down 0.02%, with the overall cotton market in a high-level consolidation.
What does this divergence mean? For buyers, acrylonitrile's strength may persist, while PTA's short-term pullback could offer a window for phased replenishment. However, raw silk's persistent weakness warns of structural changes in downstream consumer demand.
Industry Impact: Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Procurement Rhythm
From an upstream-downstream transmission perspective, PTA's price easing may gradually pass through to polyester filament and staple fiber. However, the current rise in polyester staple fiber suggests short-term demand resilience remains. The decline in polyester POY hints at subtle changes in the supply-demand balance for certain filament varieties.
Acrylonitrile's strength is tied to downstream demand for acrylic fiber and ABS, and its 22% year-on-year increase surpasses PTA's, making it one of the most cost-pressured raw materials. For fabric mills using acrylic blends, cost control will be more challenging.
Raw silk's 10.34% year-on-year decline is another signal worth noting. This could stem from weak end-consumer demand for silk or increased competition from substitutes like high-quality rayon yarn. Rayon yarn prices were flat, up 4.06% year-on-year, relatively stable.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Accelerate procurement of acrylonitrile-related products (e.g., acrylic yarn) but avoid chasing peaks; monitor supply changes. - If PTA continues to correct, consider locking in polyester raw material costs in batches below 6,000 yuan/ton. - Take advantage of low raw silk prices for strategic stocking, but only after assessing order certainty.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Maintain current export quotes for polyester staple fiber, but monitor PTA trends for future cost impacts. - When taking long-term cotton yarn orders, include raw material price floating clauses to hedge against correction risks. - Consider lowering export quotes for raw silk to win orders, but watch cocoon purchase prices for cost support.
Overall, the mid-July raw material price divergence reflects a normal market rebalancing. For textile enterprises, the focus should be on refined procurement management rather than one-size-fits-all stockpiling or waiting.