Textile Raw Material Price Divergence Intensifies: Acrylonitrile Leads Rally, Cotton Yarn Under Pressure

The textile raw material market experienced a rare 'fire and ice' divergence in mid-July 2026. According to publicly available industry data, among 17 monitored bulk textile commodities, 8 rose, 3 fell, with an average gain of 0.54%. More noteworthy is the industrial logic behind the winners and losers: chemical fiber raw materials all rallied, while cotton spinning and natural fibers weakened.\n\n## Chemical Fiber: Cost Pass-Through and Tight Supply\n\nAcrylonitrile was the week's standout with a 5.11% gain, rising from 9,133 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, up 22.29% year-on-year. This surge was driven by strong upstream propylene prices and plant maintenance shutdowns causing temporary supply tightness. For downstream carbon fiber and acrylic fiber producers, this means rapidly accumulating cost pressure.\n\nPTA rose 1.48% to 5,985.91 yuan/ton, up 25.68% year-on-year, supported by high international crude oil prices and tight PX supply. Polyester staple fiber and DTY gained 1.30% and 0.75% respectively, indicating smooth cost pass-through in the polyester chain. Nylon POY and DTY also rose 0.74% and 0.25%, showing widespread price increases across the chemical fiber chain.\n\nThis rally directly squeezes downstream weaving mills. Raw material procurement costs are being pushed up in the short term, especially against the backdrop of long foreign trade order price negotiation cycles, putting profit margins at risk. Buyers need to reassess inventory strategies and forward locking windows.\n\n## Cotton and Natural Fibers: Weak Demand Drags Prices\n\nIn stark contrast, cotton yarn and raw silk prices fell. Cotton yarn 32S dropped 0.60% to 24,725 yuan/ton, 21S fell 0.57% to 23,333 yuan/ton, and raw silk edged down 0.14% to 425,100 yuan/ton. Although cotton yarn still has over 6% year-on-year gains, the short-term downtrend warrants caution.\n\nThe core driver is sluggish terminal apparel order recovery. Domestic consumption recovery is slow, and major overseas markets are still in a destocking cycle, leading to insufficient new orders for cotton spinning mills. With cotton prices only up 0.13% this week, lacking strong cost support, cotton yarn prices naturally face pressure. For home textile and knitting companies that primarily use cotton yarn, this may be a phased replenishment window, but they should be alert to further downside risks.\n\nRaw silk prices fell 10.34% year-on-year, reflecting long-term structural pressure in the silk industry. Weakening demand for high-end silk products in European and American markets, combined with rising competition from emerging Southeast Asian producing areas, keeps domestic raw silk prices low.\n\n## Transmission Effects of Price Divergence\n\nThe chemical fiber vs. cotton divergence is reshaping downstream procurement decisions. For blended fabric producers, adjusting the formula to increase chemical fiber usage can lower overall costs. For pure cotton product lines, more attention must be paid to bottom signals in cotton yarn prices.\n\nFrom a foreign trade perspective, rising chemical fiber prices may weaken Chinese textile price competitiveness in Southeast Asia. Countries like Vietnam and India are increasing self-sufficiency in polyester filament and staple fiber, narrowing Chinese exporters' bargaining room. Conversely, weak cotton yarn prices may provide a cost buffer for cotton garment exporters.\n\n## Practical Recommendations\n\n### For Buyers\n- Monitor acrylonitrile and PTA trends; if supply tightness persists, consider locking in some chemical fiber orders early to avoid peak season cost spikes.\n- Adopt a wait-and-see approach for cotton yarn; July-August is typically off-season, with room for further price declines. Buy on demand rather than building inventory.\n\n### For Foreign Trade Companies\n- For chemical fiber export products, include raw material price fluctuation clauses in quotations or use short-term price locking to protect margins from rising costs.\n- For cotton yarn and cotton product exports, take advantage of the current stable domestic cotton price window to sign medium- to long-term orders with overseas clients, locking in cost advantages.