In the first half of 2026, China's textile and apparel exports reached $145.96 billion, a modest 1.4% year-on-year increase. While the headline figure appears stable, a deeper look reveals a clear structural divergence: upstream intermediate goods exports grew by 3.5%, while garment exports actually declined by 0.7%. This contrast signals a fundamental shift in overseas purchasing strategies from stocking finished garments to sourcing fabrics and yarns more frequently.
June Turning Point: Autumn/Winter Restocking Unleashed
June's monthly data stood out sharply. Textile and apparel exports hit $29.27 billion, up 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year. This rebound was not accidental—overseas brands had largely completed destocking, and easing Middle East tensions along with lower shipping costs prompted buyers to accelerate orders for autumn and winter. Textile exports alone reached $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM. Garment exports were $15.75 billion, up only 3.2% YoY but surging 21% MoM, indicating a concentrated but relatively weaker restocking demand for finished products.
In renminbi terms, cumulative exports for H1 fell 2.2% to 1.012 trillion yuan, with currency fluctuations eroding profit margins. Textile exports (506.42 billion yuan) fell only 0.1%, showing strong resilience, while garment exports (505.8 billion yuan) dropped 4.2%. For garment OEMs, the dual pressure of currency depreciation and shifting order structures is squeezing margins.
Uneven Global Markets: US Leads, EU and Japan Lag
Export data for the first five months reveals a fragmented global demand landscape. The US market was the biggest growth driver, with export growth expanding by 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The summit between Chinese and US leaders stabilized bilateral expectations, and brands, having completed destocking, increased their reliance on Chinese supply chains.
Conversely, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken. The EU is grappling with high energy costs and inflation, dampening consumer apparel spending. ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea are constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, leading to reduced imports from China. This "East rising, West falling" pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term, forcing companies to reassess regional market priorities.
Product Divergence: Upstream Resilience, Garment Pressure
Category-level data for the first five months confirms the industry's divergent performance. Yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports dipped only 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%. In contrast, garment and apparel accessory exports fell 1.6%.
The core logic behind this divergence: overseas brands have shifted to low-inventory strategies, reducing large long-term garment orders and instead placing frequent, smaller orders for semi-finished goods like yarns and fabrics. China's complete industrial chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing, to finished products—offers unmatched delivery speed and quality, making upstream categories hard to replace. The lower-barrier garment OEM segment, however, faces intense competition from international capacity shifts and domestic price wars.
For buyers, this means future ordering patterns will become more fragmented and high-frequency, demanding greater supply chain responsiveness.
Outlook: External Challenges Remain, Industry Fundamentals Solid
The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures from rising energy costs, persistent inflation, and monetary tightening. Weak consumption recovery in Europe and the US, high production costs, and fragmented global trade patterns will intensify competition. June's rebound injects confidence, but it also points clearly to the direction of transformation: the era of low-cost, volume-driven exports is over.
A complete industrial chain, product innovation, and diversified global presence are the core levers for navigating the cycle. While external uncertainties persist in the second half, supported by China's deep textile industry roots, companies that adjust product structures and market layouts in time can still maintain a stable export performance.