China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of 2026 delivered a mixed picture: stable in aggregate but sharply divergent in structure. According to the latest customs data, total exports reached $145.96 billion from January to June, up 1.4% year-on-year, holding at a historically high level. However, the real story lies in the structural gap: upstream textile exports rose 3.5% to $73 billion, while downstream garment exports slipped 0.7% to $72.96 billion. Two sectors with nearly equal volume are moving in opposite directions.
June Rebound: Autumn-Winter Stocking Meets External Tailwinds
Monthly data best captures short-term inflection points. June exports hit $29.27 billion, up 7.2% YoY and a sharp 14.3% month-on-month, making it the strongest month of the half. Textile exports reached $13.52 billion, surging 12.2% YoY and up 7.4% MoM; garment exports hit $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY and soaring 21% MoM. These figures clearly signal the start of overseas autumn-winter restocking, with intermediate goods like fabrics and yarns showing far more elasticity than finished garments.
In renminbi terms, exchange rate fluctuations distorted the picture. Cumulative exports totaled 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY, with textiles falling only 0.1% and garments dropping 4.2%, underscoring greater profit pressure downstream. June renminbi-denominated exports also rebounded, reaching 200.25 billion yuan with both YoY and MoM gains. The fabric segment led growth, while garments—though still slightly down YoY—recorded over 20% MoM growth, confirming genuine overseas demand recovery.
Market Divergence: US Shines, Traditional Markets Struggle
Export data for the first five months reveals a starkly fragmented global demand landscape. The US market was the single largest growth driver, with export growth accelerating 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. This reflects both the stabilization of bilateral relations after the summit and the completion of inventory destocking by overseas brands, which have resumed larger procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to lose momentum. The EU is struggling with high energy costs and persistent inflation, suppressing consumer spending on apparel. ASEAN, Japan, and Korea—constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices—also reduced imports from China. Meanwhile, the temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs provided additional short-term support for the June rebound.
Supply Chain Advantage: The Logic Behind Upstream Resilience
Product-level data vividly illustrates the contrasting fortunes of upstream and downstream sectors. In the first five months, yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports edged down only 0.5%, and finished textile products rose 2.6%. By contrast, apparel and clothing accessories exports fell 1.6%. The root cause: overseas brands are adopting lean inventory strategies, reducing large long-term garment orders and instead purchasing semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric more frequently to maintain supply chain flexibility.
China's advantage lies in having the world's most complete textile supply chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, and dyeing to finished products—offering unmatched delivery speed and quality that competitors elsewhere cannot replicate. This is the core reason upstream segments continue to grow. The garment OEM track, however, has lower entry barriers and faces intense international capacity diversion and price competition, a pressure unlikely to ease in the near term.
H2 Outlook: Confidence Amidst Challenges
Looking ahead to the second half, the global trade environment remains complex. The World Bank warns of continued headwinds from high energy prices, persistent inflation, and tightening monetary policies worldwide, all of which will weigh on consumer demand. Weak recovery in end-consumer spending in Europe and the US, rising production costs, and fragmentation of global trade patterns will continue to test the industry.
The June rebound has injected confidence and pointed the way forward. The era of low-price, high-volume exports is over. A complete supply chain, product innovation, and diversified global markets are the keys to navigating the cycle. External uncertainties remain, but with a deep industrial foundation, companies that adjust their product mix and market strategies in time can still keep the export ship stable.