According to the latest customs statistics, China imported approximately 110,000 tons of cotton in June 2026, a staggering 294.9% increase year-on-year. This means the monthly import volume is nearly four times that of the same period in 2025. The fact that it remained flat compared to May indicates this is a trend, not a one-off spike.
Deep Dive into Import Data
From January to June 2026, China's cumulative cotton imports reached about 940,000 tons, a 102.2% year-on-year increase. Even more telling is the data for the 2025/26 cotton year (September 2025 to June 2026): total imports were approximately 1.44 million tons, up 51.6% year-on-year. While this cross-year growth rate is lower than the half-year doubling, it has a more stable base effect and better reflects medium-to-long-term changes in demand structure.
The zero month-on-month growth in June suggests imports are holding at a high plateau rather than peaking and falling. This typically indicates that downstream textile mills are still replenishing raw material inventories, not making a one-time bulk purchase. For yarn spinners, this means production costs for the next 2-3 months will be locked in at current imported cotton prices.
Price Scissors and Restocking Logic
The core driver behind the surge in imported cotton is the persistent inversion of domestic and international cotton price spreads. Since the second half of 2025, domestic cotton prices have been relatively stable due to stable Xinjiang cotton output expectations and reserve cotton release policies. Meanwhile, international prices strengthened due to low global major producer stocks and recovering demand from India and Pakistan. However, by Q1 2026, the price spread reversed—imported cotton regained a cost advantage, triggering concentrated forward contract signings by textile enterprises.
The cotton arriving in June was likely contracted in March-April 2026. At that time, the ICE cotton futures主力合约 was trading in the 75-80 cents/lb range, with a landed duty-paid price in RMB of approximately 13,500-14,500 yuan/ton, 800-1,200 yuan/ton lower than domestic Grade 3128B cotton. This price window triggered concentrated purchases by traders and large spinning mills.
Transmission Effects on Yarn and Fabric Chains
The influx of imported cotton will directly reshape the competitive landscape of the cotton yarn market. The raw material cost for 32s and 40s carded yarns made from imported cotton is about 6%-8% lower than that for similar products using Xinjiang cotton. This means large spinning mills with import quotas and overseas procurement channels will gain a significant cost advantage, while small and medium mills unable to access cheap imported cotton will see their profit margins further compressed.
For downstream fabric mills and garment exporters, the short-term increase in cotton yarn supply and intensified price competition is beneficial for lowering procurement costs. However, caution is needed: this cost dividend is policy-dependent. If the issuance of sliding-duty quotas tightens or the domestic-international price spread narrows, the cost advantage of imported cotton could disappear quickly.
Differential Responses in Regional Industrial Clusters
In terms of port flows, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang remain the main distribution hubs for imported cotton. Cotton inventories at Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, and Ningbo ports have been climbing since April, with some bonded warehouse utilization rates exceeding 85%. Large textile groups like Shandong Weiqiao and Jiangsu Yueda have increased their imported cotton usage ratio to 40%-50%, while inland cotton-producing provinces like Hubei and Henan still rely mainly on Xinjiang cotton, with imported cotton accounting for less than 15%. This regional divergence is widening the cost gap between coastal and inland mills.
For export-oriented fabric clusters like Keqiao and Shengze, lower raw material costs from imported cotton help maintain export price competitiveness. Against the backdrop of rising yarn prices in Southeast Asian competitors like Bangladesh and Vietnam, Chinese fabric companies can seize the opportunity to consolidate order shares in European and American markets.