At $145.96 billion, China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of 2026 present a picture of overall stability but significant structural divergence. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14 shows that while total exports grew 1.4% year-on-year, the gap between upstream and downstream sectors is widening.
Upstream Order Resilience vs. Apparel Pressure
Sub-segment data reveals a fragmented industrial chain. Textile exports in H1 reached $73 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year; apparel exports were $72.96 billion, down 0.7%. Although volumes are nearly equal, the growth differential is 4.2 percentage points. Yarn exports grew 6.6%, fabric exports only dipped 0.5%, while apparel and accessories fell 1.6%.
This divergence reflects a shift in overseas purchasing strategies. Brands are moving toward low-inventory operations, reducing large long-term garment orders in favor of frequent procurement of semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric. China's one-stop capabilities from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products make it difficult for other regions to replace its delivery efficiency and product quality. Upstream categories benefit consistently, while the garment OEM track faces low entry barriers, capacity diversion, and price competition.
June Rebound: Autumn-Winter Stocking Drives Export Recovery
June data marks a critical inflection point. Monthly textile and apparel exports hit $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and surging 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports were $13.52 billion, up 12.2% year-on-year; apparel exports were $15.75 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year and surging 21% month-on-month.
This rebound directly points to the start of overseas autumn-winter stocking. The strong fabric segment suggests buyers are locking in intermediate goods for next-season production. The concentrated release of garment restocking orders confirms that inventory destocking is largely complete, but sustainability remains uncertain—further order increases depend on actual recovery in European and US consumer demand.
US Market Shines as EU, Japan, Korea Weaken
Market data for the first five months shows clear regional divergence. The US market became the largest incremental source in H1, with export growth expanding 15 percentage points year-on-year. The US-China summit stabilized bilateral expectations, and as overseas brands complete inventory destocking, they increased procurement from Chinese supply chains.
In contrast, traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continue to weaken. The EU is mired in high energy costs and inflation, depressing apparel consumption. ASEAN, Japan, and Korea face dual pressures from regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports from China. The temporary easing of Middle East tensions and falling shipping costs were important short-term boosts to June's recovery.
Currency Fluctuation and Profit Pressure
RMB-denominated data more directly reflects corporate profit pressure. H1 cumulative exports were 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year. Apparel exports were 505.8 billion yuan, down 4.2%, further compressing profit margins for garment manufacturers. June data also showed recovery in RMB terms, with monthly exports of 200.25 billion yuan; fabric performed well, but apparel still declined slightly year-on-year.
Currency fluctuations cause some data distortion, but cost-side pressures are more critical. High energy prices, volatile raw material costs, and rising labor expenses are squeezing textile companies' margins. Upstream companies maintain profitability through technical barriers and scale effects, while downstream OEM factories face more severe survival tests.
Outlook: Challenges and Resilience
Looking ahead, the global trade environment remains complex. The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures from rising energy prices, high inflation, and tightening monetary policy. Weak recovery in European and US consumer demand, persistently high production costs, and fragmented global trade patterns leading to capacity competition will continue to test the industry.
However, China's textile industry's strength lies in its complete industrial chain advantage—a one-stop capability from chemical fiber, spinning, dyeing to finished products that is difficult for other regions to replace. The era of relying on low prices and high volumes is over. Product innovation and diversified global market layout are the core tools for navigating the cycle. Companies must proactively adjust product structures, invest in higher value-added categories, and spread market risk to avoid over-reliance on any single region.