The price of acrylonitrile fell below the psychologically important 10,000 yuan threshold in mid-July, reaching 9,600 yuan per ton, a decline of 4.79% from the beginning of the month. This marks the first time the product has returned to a four-digit range since the fourth quarter of 2025, directly impacting the pricing logic of the chemical fiber chain.
Supply and Demand Dynamics Behind the Price Decline
According to public market data, from July 1 to July 17, the price of acrylonitrile steadily declined from 10,083 yuan per ton, with a cumulative drop of nearly 5%. This trend is not isolated—benchmark prices from Shengyi Society showed a sharp decline to 9,416 yuan per ton on July 15, followed by stabilization around 9,566 yuan per ton on July 16 and 17, indicating a pattern of initial rapid decline followed by stabilization.
The core driver of the price decline is increased supply. In the first half of 2026, multiple domestic acrylonitrile units completed maintenance and ramped up operations, while new capacity continued to come online. Meanwhile, demand growth in key downstream sectors—acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and acrylamide—has slowed significantly. In the acrylic fiber sector, weak terminal orders in textiles have kept operating rates around 60%, with buyers only maintaining essential procurement.
Transmission Effects on the Textile Chain
Acrylonitrile is the direct raw material for acrylic fiber, and its price changes propagate downstream along the chain. Acrylic fiber, used as a substitute for wool in knitted sweaters and wool-like fabrics, sees its cost structure directly affected. The current price below 10,000 yuan temporarily eases cost pressure for acrylic fiber producers, but whether this translates into lower finished product prices depends on the bargaining power of downstream segments such as polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fiber and acrylic yarn.
For the broader chemical fiber industry, the weakness in acrylonitrile will lower the cost center of the propylene-acrylonitrile-acrylic fiber chain. If prices remain below 10,000 yuan, the price gap between acrylic fiber and competing fibers like polyester and viscose staple will narrow, potentially prompting some textile mills to reassess raw material choices based on cost performance.
Regional Industrial Cluster Reactions and Expectations
Domestic acrylonitrile production capacity is concentrated in East and Northeast China, including facilities operated by Shanghai SECCO, Jilin Petrochemical, and Anqing Petrochemical. From a regional perspective, chemical fiber and downstream processing enterprises in these areas will be the first to benefit from the cost advantage of lower raw material prices. For example, acrylic yarn and wool textile clusters in Zhejiang and Jiangsu can extend their procurement cycles to lock in costs at favorable prices.
However, the rapid price decline may also trigger a wait-and-see attitude among downstream buyers, who may delay purchases in anticipation of further drops. Historical experience shows that when chemical raw material prices fall more than 5% in a single month, downstream buyers typically adopt a 'buy on uptrend, avoid on downtrend' approach, slowing inventory destocking.