Acrylonitrile prices accelerated their decline in mid-July, with the reference price falling to 9,600 yuan per ton, a drop of nearly 5% from the beginning of the month. This decline is not an isolated event—from 9,416.67 yuan/ton on July 15 to 9,566.67 yuan/ton on July 17, the market experienced a rapid bottoming process in just three days, reflecting the combined pressure from ample supply and weak demand. For the textile chemical fiber chain, acrylonitrile, as the core raw material for acrylic fiber, carbon fiber, and other high-end fibers, directly determines the cost base of downstream products. This round of decline means that the profit distribution pattern from raw materials to finished products is undergoing substantial changes.
Behind the Price Drop: Supply and Demand Squeeze
From a timeline perspective, acrylonitrile was still at 10,083.33 yuan/ton on July 1, and within half a month, it dropped by 4.79%, equivalent to a decline of over 480 yuan per ton. This speed is relatively fast among chemical raw materials, indicating that the market is not undergoing a mild adjustment but rather concentrated selling or a demand cliff. On the supply side, major domestic acrylonitrile units maintained high operating rates from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter, coupled with the release of some new capacity, resulting in ample overall supply. On the demand side, the downstream acrylic fiber industry is in a traditional off-season, with spinning companies showing low purchasing willingness; the ABS resin sector is dragged down by the weakness in real estate and home appliance end-markets, leading to a simultaneous decline in acrylonitrile consumption. The combined pressure from both supply and demand has pushed prices downward. Notably, on July 15, prices briefly dipped to 9,416.67 yuan/ton before rebounding slightly to 9,566.67 yuan/ton, suggesting that the market is searching for a bottom support level. Whether the 9,600 yuan/ton mark can hold will depend on subsequent unit maintenance plans and downstream restocking pace.
Transmission Effects on the Textile Chemical Fiber Industry
The decline in acrylonitrile prices most directly benefits acrylic fiber producers. For acrylic fiber, where raw material costs typically account for 60%-70%, the factory price may gain a margin of 150-300 yuan per ton. However, whether this margin can be passed on to the final fabric and garment stages depends on the pricing strategy of acrylic fiber manufacturers—if industry competition is fierce, cost reductions may translate into price promotions rather than profit retention. In the carbon fiber field, acrylonitrile is the precursor for polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fiber. Although the carbon fiber market is relatively less price-sensitive, a sustained weakening of raw material costs will lower the production threshold for high-end carbon fiber, potentially accelerating the domestic substitution process. On the other hand, the decline in acrylonitrile prices also puts pressure on alternative raw materials. For example, if acrylonitrile continues to run low, downstream users of other chemical fiber raw materials such as caprolactam and PTA may adjust their purchasing mix, indirectly affecting the entire chemical fiber raw material price ratio system.
Short-Term Outlook and Risk Warnings
From historical data, acrylonitrile prices typically hit annual lows in July-August, but a monthly decline of 4.79% has exceeded the seasonal fluctuation range. Current market sentiment is bearish, and if there are no major unit maintenance events or export order surges, prices may further probe the 9,200-9,400 yuan/ton range. However, costs are already approaching the breakeven line for some high-cost units, and further deep declines would trigger production cuts to support prices. Therefore, the 9,500 yuan/ton level may become a short-term trading center.