Brent crude surged 4.59% in a single day, and WTI closed up 4.48%—on July 17, 2026, international oil prices marked a strong return above $80/barrel. For the textile industry, this is not just a change in energy bills, but a signal for the repricing of the entire cost chain from PX to polyester filament.
Cascading Effects on the Cost Side
Crude oil is the starting point of the petrochemical-fiber chain. Based on July 17 closing prices, Brent was at $88.10/barrel and WTI at $82.49/barrel, both hitting near two-week highs. In the textile sector, every $1/barrel rise in crude theoretically pushes up PTA production costs by about 35-40 yuan/ton. With a 4.5% rally, PTA production costs theoretically increased by 130-150 yuan/ton in a single day.
Looking at the transmission mechanism, PX (paraxylene), the direct feedstock for PTA, is highly correlated with naphtha and crude. On July 18, the Asian PX market showed a clear uptick, with CFR China prices rising about $12/ton day-on-day. This means the PTA processing spread (PTA-PX) will be compressed. To maintain margins, plants must either support prices through maintenance cuts or pass pressure downstream to polyester filament.
Polyester Filament: A Dilemma Amid High Inventories
The polyester filament market is currently in its traditional off-season. Industry data shows that as of mid-July, average inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 18-22 days, with POY, FDY, and DTY all at moderate to high levels. The sudden crude rally presents a dilemma: raising prices sharply may lead downstream weaving mills to reject orders due to insufficient demand, while maintaining prices will erode margins as raw material costs rise.
Historically, when oil prices surge over 4% in a single day, chemical fiber plants often adopt a 'price freeze' or 'limited order' strategy to gauge end-user reactions. On the morning of July 18, some polyester plants in Shengze and Changxing suspended quotations, waiting for direction from PTA futures.
Impact on Weaving and Dyeing
The core contradiction for weaving mills is rising costs versus difficulty in synchronizing order prices. Circular knitting clusters in Shaoxing and Xiaoshan, and water-jet loom clusters in Shengze and Xiuzhou, generally run at 65%-70% capacity. Domestic demand lacks a hot product driver, while export orders face narrow bargaining space due to exchange rate volatility and shipping delays.
The dyeing sector is also under pressure. Although disperse dyes and auxiliaries are not directly linked to crude, energy costs (steam, electricity) account for about 15%-20% of total costs. Higher oil prices push up fuel costs for thermal power plants, which then feeds into dyeing processing fees. Some mills in Nantong and Shishi have indicated that if crude stays above $85/barrel, they may raise dyeing charges in early August.