The cotton yarn import data for the first half of 2026 forces the industry to reassess the resilience of China's cotton spinning supply chain. According to official customs data, June imports reached approximately 170,000 tons, a year-on-year surge of 54.2%. The first-half total stood at 1.05 million tons, up 56.3%. Even more noteworthy, cumulative imports for the first ten months of the 2025/26 season (September 2025 to June 2026) hit about 1.64 million tons, a 40.2% increase.
This import surge is not an isolated event. On the price front, international cotton prices have consistently traded below domestic spot prices throughout the 2025/26 season, with the price gap persisting in the range of 1,500 to 2,000 RMB per ton. This directly stimulated traders and spinning mills to increase purchases of imported yarn. Meanwhile, capacity expansion in Southeast Asian countries—particularly India, Vietnam, and Pakistan—has enhanced the competitiveness of their cotton yarn offers to China, further fueling the import wave.
Industrial Transmission Behind the Import Surge
The influx of imported cotton yarn first impacts the market share of small and medium-sized domestic spinners. These mills, which primarily produce conventional cotton yarn, cannot compete on raw material costs with imported yarn that benefits from cheaper foreign cotton. In major cotton yarn producing regions such as Lanxi (Zhejiang), Xiajin (Shandong), and Nantong (Jiangsu), some mills have proactively reduced operating rates, opting to supplement downstream orders with imported yarn. This creates a substitution effect where domestic spinning slows down while imported yarn fills the gap.
From the perspective of downstream weaving and garment processing, the stable supply and price advantage of imported yarn make it a more attractive option for buyers. Standardized products like denim, knitted underwear, and towels, which have relatively uniform quality requirements for cotton yarn, are increasingly sourced from imports. Imported yarn now meets most order specifications in terms of count, strength, and evenness. This means domestic spinners must build barriers through differentiated products or face a more severe risk of customer loss.
Structural Changes Revealed by Cumulative Data
Looking at the entire 2025/26 season, the 1.64 million tons imported in the first ten months is already approaching the total import volume of the previous full season. Behind this data lies a deep shift in the raw material supply structure of China's textile industry. On one hand, domestic cotton production has stabilized at around 6 million tons per year in recent years, constrained by planting area and weather, which cannot fully meet the raw material demands of the spinning sector. On the other hand, import tariffs on cotton yarn have gradually decreased under bilateral trade agreements, with preferential rates for Vietnam and Pakistan further reducing import costs.
The product mix of imported cotton yarn is also changing quietly. The share of high-count combed yarn and compact spun yarn—mid-to-high-end segments—has risen from about 18% in 2023 to approximately 25% in the first half of 2026. This indicates that imported yarn is not only dominant in the low-end market but is also penetrating the mid-to-high-end segment. This directly challenges large domestic spinners, forcing them to adjust their raw material procurement, process upgrades, and order response speed.