On July 17, the domestic acrylonitrile spot reference price stood at 9,600 yuan per ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month. This is the first time in 2026 that the price has clearly broken below the 10,000-yuan threshold, sending a strong signal of sustained pressure on chemical fiber raw materials.
Underlying Logic of the Price Decline
The direct driver of this round of acrylonitrile price decline comes from the feedstock side. Propylene, the core raw material for acrylonitrile, has recently seen price easing due to international oil price volatility and high operating rates of domestic PDH units. Meanwhile, synthetic ammonia prices have also weakened, further eroding the cost support for acrylonitrile. Against a backdrop of a downward-shifting cost curve, the theoretical profit margin for acrylonitrile producers has actually narrowed—because the drop in product selling prices has far outpaced the decline in raw material costs.
More critical pressure comes from the demand side. The operating rate in the downstream acrylic fiber industry remains around 60%, and both domestic and export orders in the end-use textile and apparel sector have not shown seasonal strength. The ABS resin sector is also weak, with incremental demand from home appliances and automobiles insufficient to absorb new capacity. The acrylamide industry is constrained by slowing investment in water treatment and papermaking, leading to a notably slower procurement pace. The simultaneous contraction of three major downstream sectors has caused acrylonitrile social inventories to accumulate continuously.
Chain Reactions in Industrial Clusters
The impact of acrylonitrile prices falling below the 10,000-yuan mark is already evident in major industrial clusters such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Shandong, a concentrated area for domestic acrylonitrile capacity, has seen some small and medium-sized enterprises relying on external propylene procurement facing cash flow pressure, with product selling prices approaching or even falling below full cost. In Zhejiang, acrylic fiber yarn companies are experiencing a brief raw material cost dividend, but whether this dividend can translate into profit depends on the procurement willingness of downstream fabric mills and apparel brands.
From the perspective of the industry chain transmission mechanism, raw material price cuts are not purely a positive. When end-user demand itself is weak, price cuts actually reinforce the wait-and-see sentiment downstream—buyers expect prices to fall further and thus delay orders. This 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality is exacerbating the destocking difficulty of intermediate products like acrylic fiber and ABS resin. The Texcircle editorial team has noted that some traders have begun actively discounting to clear inventory, further depressing the market center.
Q3 Price Outlook and Risk Points
Based on the supply-demand fundamentals, acrylonitrile prices in the third quarter are likely to oscillate at low levels in the 9,200-9,800 yuan per ton range. Upside drivers are limited: first, if propylene feedstock prices decline further, cost support will continue to weaken; second, the downstream acrylic fiber and ABS industries have no large-scale replenishment plans, and destocking of social inventory will take time.
Risk points to watch include:
- If international oil prices rebound unexpectedly, driving up propylene prices, acrylonitrile may see a short-term cost-driven rally.
- Some domestic acrylonitrile units plan maintenance in August-September; if the scale of maintenance exceeds expectations, it could temporarily tighten supply.
- The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the cost of imported acrylonitrile, as current import prices are already close to domestic quotes, narrowing the arbitrage space.