The price of acrylonitrile has broken below the psychological threshold of 10,000 yuan per ton in mid-July. According to industry public data, the reference price of acrylonitrile on July 17, 2026, stood at 9,600 yuan per ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan on July 1. A nearly 5% drop within just half a month is uncommon in the chemical raw material market.
Industrial Logic Behind the Price Decline
This round of acrylonitrile price decline is not driven by a single factor. On the upstream side, the price of propylene, the key raw material, softened at the end of the second quarter, weakening cost support. On the supply side, multiple domestic acrylonitrile units resumed production in early July after concentrated maintenance shutdowns between the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, leading to a significant increase in market supply. On the demand side, downstream industries such as acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and acrylamide operated at 60%-70% capacity, with procurement limited to essential needs and little willingness to build inventory. The mismatch between supply and demand directly pushed down spot transaction prices.
It is worth noting that the current price level of 9,600 yuan per ton is already below the full production cost line of some high-cost plants. This means that if prices continue to decline, the industry may see a phase of production cuts or increased maintenance, forming a new equilibrium on the supply side. However, given current market sentiment, there is still room for further price declines in the short term.
Transmission Effects on the Chemical Fiber Chain
Acrylonitrile is the core raw material for acrylic fiber (polyacrylonitrile fiber), and its price changes directly impact acrylic fiber production costs. By industry averages, acrylonitrile accounts for approximately 60%-70% of acrylic fiber costs. The price decline since July theoretically reduces costs for acrylic fiber producers by about 300-400 yuan per ton. However, in reality, downstream sectors such as spinning and knitting are experiencing weak demand, and insufficient end-user orders prevent the full conversion of cost savings into profits, instead leading to price declines in finished products.
For the ABS resin industry, acrylonitrile is one of the three main monomers. Lower prices help ease cost pressures for modified plastic companies. Yet, facing slowing demand growth in downstream sectors like automotive and home appliances, whether cost benefits materialize depends on customer acceptance.
From a broader perspective, acrylonitrile prices falling below 10,000 yuan signal a loosening of the previous "high cost, high price" phase for chemical fiber raw materials. Over the past two years, chemical raw material prices remained elevated due to geopolitical factors and energy price volatility. Now, with global capacity expansion and slowing demand growth, the cost support logic for raw materials is being reassessed.
Key Points to Watch for Future Market Trends
First, changes in operating rates of major acrylonitrile units. Current industry average operating rates are around 75%. If prices remain below cost lines, some companies may proactively reduce output. Second, whether downstream demand can see marginal improvement during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Third, the price differential between international and domestic acrylonitrile prices. If imported supplies continue to flow in, domestic prices will face further pressure.
Overall, acrylonitrile prices may find some support near 9,600 yuan per ton, but the momentum for a rebound is weak. For professionals in the textile and chemical fiber industry, raw material price fluctuations are becoming a key variable affecting profitability, rather than a simple cost-plus model.