Amidst global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, China's textile and apparel exports posted a steady but structurally divergent performance in the first half of 2026. According to latest customs data, total exports reached $145.96 billion from January to June, up 1.4% year-on-year. However, the standout figure was June's monthly performance—$29.27 billion, surging 14.3% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year, signaling the start of autumn-winter stocking by overseas buyers.
Structural Signals Behind the Data
A breakdown by product category reveals a clear divergence between upstream and downstream sectors. Textile exports (including yarn, fabric, and made-up articles) totaled $73 billion in H1, up 3.5%, with yarn exports alone rising 6.6%. In contrast, garment exports reached $72.96 billion, down 0.7% year-on-year—though the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points from last year. This gap reflects a fundamental shift in overseas brands' procurement strategy: lean inventory management has become the norm, favoring high-frequency orders of semi-finished goods like yarn and fabric over large, long-term garment orders.
Renminbi-denominated data highlight the additional pressure from currency fluctuations. Total exports in RMB terms fell 2.2% to 1.012 trillion yuan, with garment exports dropping 4.2% to 505.8 billion yuan. This means garment manufacturers face both order weakness and forex-driven margin erosion. Textile exports, at 506.42 billion yuan, slipped only 0.1%, demonstrating stronger resilience.
A Reshaping Market Landscape
Overseas market performance was highly uneven, with the US emerging as the biggest growth driver. In the first five months, China's textile and apparel exports to the US expanded 15 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The stabilization of bilateral relations following the Xi-Biden summit, combined with depleted brand inventories, prompted buyers to ramp up sourcing from China. Conversely, traditional markets like the EU, Japan, and Korea continued to weaken. The EU's high energy costs and inflation have suppressed consumer apparel spending, while ASEAN, Japan, and Korea saw import declines due to regional tensions and rising energy prices.
June's sharp rebound was also supported by a temporary easing of Middle East tensions and lower shipping costs. However, the industry must recognize that seasonal surges cannot mask structural challenges—global consumption growth remains weak, and Western end-markets show sluggish recovery.
Supply Chain Advantage vs. Transformation Pressure
The H1 data reaffirm that China's complete textile supply chain remains a critical competitive edge. From chemical fiber, spinning, and dyeing to finished products, this one-stop capability makes upstream intermediates like yarn and fabric hard to replace by other regions in terms of delivery speed and quality. This is the core reason for the sustained growth in textile exports. In contrast, the garment OEM segment has low entry barriers, facing severe international capacity diversion and price competition—a pressure unlikely to ease soon.
For companies, the message is clear: accelerate the shift from 'low-price, high-volume' to 'product innovation plus global diversification.' Relying solely on garment OEM is no longer sustainable. Moving up the value chain into higher-margin intermediates and expanding into emerging markets are realistic paths to weather the cycle.
H2 Outlook and Practical Advice
The World Bank warns that the global economy will continue to face triple pressures from energy price hikes, inflation, and monetary tightening. The external environment for H2 remains complex. Yet June's rebound at least proves that real overseas demand hasn't vanished—only its rhythm and composition have changed. Companies that adjust product mix and market focus in time can still expect a stable export baseline.