On July 17, the reference price of acrylonitrile broke below the 10,000 yuan threshold, settling at 9,600 yuan per ton, a 4.79% decline from 10,083.33 yuan at the beginning of July. This is not just a numerical retreat but signals a structural loosening of cost support across the chemical fiber chain.
Signs of Accelerated Price Decline
From a temporal perspective, the price decline accelerated in the first half of July. Between July 1 and July 17, the drop approached 5% within 15 trading days. The benchmark price hit a low of 9,416.67 yuan per ton on July 15 before stabilizing around 9,566.67 yuan. This pattern of sharp decline followed by low-level consolidation typically indicates a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics rather than short-term sentiment.
Industry data shows that acrylonitrile prices remained above 10,000 yuan at the end of June but fell below key psychological levels in early July. For the textile industry, acrylonitrile is the direct raw material for acrylic fiber (polyacrylonitrile fiber). Price fluctuations propagate along the chain: acrylonitrile → acrylic fiber → blended yarn → fabric. The current decline means raw material cost pressure on acrylic fiber producers is easing, but it may also trigger wait-and-see behavior among downstream buyers.
Transmission Effects Along the Chain
The impact of falling acrylonitrile prices on downstream sectors is not uniformly positive. For acrylic fiber mills, lower raw material costs theoretically improve gross margins, but if end-demand remains weak, product prices may decline in tandem, limiting margin improvement. More importantly, acrylonitrile is also used in ABS resin and carbon fiber precursor production; demand shifts in these areas inversely affect acrylonitrile pricing power.
From the textile procurement side, blended fabrics such as acrylic/cotton and acrylic/wool typically contain 30%-50% acrylic fiber. A 5% drop in acrylonitrile price can reduce acrylic fiber production costs by approximately 150-200 yuan per ton. This is a notable cost reduction for knitting and wool processing mills reliant on acrylic raw materials. However, during periods of rapid price decline, traders and mills tend to destock, potentially contracting short-term procurement volumes and exacerbating downward pressure.
Regional Industry Cluster Responses
Domestic acrylonitrile production capacity is concentrated in East and Northeast China, including major petrochemical plants in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong. Acrylic fiber processors in these regions—particularly industrial clusters in Shandong and Jiangsu—will directly feel the cost volatility. For markets like Keqiao and Shengze, which focus on chemical fiber fabrics, falling acrylonitrile prices may indirectly lower the relative cost competitiveness of polyester and nylon, prompting some buyers to adjust synthetic fiber ratios in blended formulations.
From a global perspective, acrylonitrile price trends are highly correlated with upstream raw materials such as crude oil and propylene. Recent oil price volatility, combined with weaker-than-expected downstream demand recovery, is the primary driver of acrylonitrile price pressure. Textile companies should closely monitor upstream linkages and avoid hoarding inventory during a downward price channel.