Acrylonitrile Price Breaks Below 10,000 Yuan, Testing Cost Support in the Chemical Fiber Chain

Acrylonitrile prices fell below the 10,000 yuan mark in mid-July, with the latest reference price at 9,600 yuan per ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan per ton at the start of the month. This decline, the most notable single-month drop in recent months, has triggered chain reactions across the chemical fiber industry.

Price Trends and Supply-Demand Dynamics

Public data shows that acrylonitrile prices have been declining since July 1, accumulating a drop of nearly 500 yuan per ton by July 17. Industry data indicates that this level is about 3% below the average price for the same period in 2025, signaling increasing supply-side pressure.

Key drivers include a loosening in propylene prices—the main feedstock—due to higher refinery operating rates, which has weakened cost support. Meanwhile, downstream sectors such as acrylic fiber and ABS resin have shown weak purchasing appetite, with factories focusing on inventory digestion rather than new orders.

Transmission Effects on the Chemical Fiber Industry

Acrylonitrile is the core raw material for acrylic fiber (polyacrylonitrile fiber), and its price fluctuations directly impact production costs. Industry estimates suggest that every 500 yuan per ton drop in acrylonitrile reduces acrylic fiber production costs by approximately 300 yuan per ton. This means that if acrylonitrile remains low, acrylic fiber manufacturers may see improved profit margins, but it could also trigger a new round of price competition.

In ABS resin, acrylonitrile accounts for about 15%-20% of costs. Its price decline could help ease raw material cost pressures in end-user industries such as home appliances and automobiles. Historically, however, it takes 2-4 weeks for cost-side benefits to transmit to end products, and the effect depends on whether downstream demand recovers simultaneously.

Regional Industrial Cluster Reactions

Major acrylonitrile production capacity in China is concentrated in East and Northeast China, including petrochemical bases in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Spot trading in these regions has notably slowed, with traders offering more flexible prices. In the Shandong market, mainstream quotes have fallen to 9,500-9,600 yuan per ton, with some low-priced cargoes even touching 9,400 yuan per ton.

For textile clusters like Shengze and Keqiao, lower acrylonitrile prices indirectly reduce upstream costs for chemical fiber fabrics, but the impact on weaving stages is limited in the short term due to inventory digestion at intermediate links.
## Outlook and Risk Warnings

The current acrylonitrile market features oversupply. Industry operating rates remain above 80%, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, so prices are expected to have further downside in the short term. However, if prices fall below 9,000 yuan per ton, some high-cost plants may be forced to cut production, rebalancing supply and demand.

Key variables include international crude oil price volatility, changes in propylene imports, and the recovery of downstream acrylic fiber export orders.

For Buyers - Consider phased replenishment at current levels to avoid inventory write-downs from continued declines, but avoid bulk hoarding; maintain 15-20 days of safety stock. - Watch for contract negotiation windows in late July to early August, aiming to lock monthly contract prices below 9,500 yuan per ton. - Closely monitor major suppliers' maintenance schedules; if concentrated shutdowns occur, prices may bottom out and rebound.

For Downstream Factories - Leverage the low acrylonitrile window to evaluate cost advantages in acrylic fiber or ABS products, potentially increasing order intake to capture market share. - Negotiate price protection clauses with upstream suppliers to hedge against the risk of sharp raw material price reversals. - Optimize formulations and processes, exploring economical alternatives or recycled materials without compromising quality.