Acrylonitrile prices have officially fallen below the 10,000 yuan threshold in mid-July. According to public industry data, the reference price on July 17 was 9,600 yuan per ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan per ton on July 1. This marks the first time since the second quarter that acrylonitrile prices have traded below the 10,000 yuan level, directly impacting the cost structure of downstream chemical fiber and plastics industries.
Drivers Behind the Price Decline
The current price drop is not an isolated event. On the supply side, major acrylonitrile plants in China have maintained high operating rates, with inventory accumulation accelerating in key production areas such as Shandong and Jiangsu provinces. Meanwhile, upstream propylene prices have weakened amid crude oil fluctuations and the release of propane dehydrogenation capacity, reducing cost support. The combined pressure from both supply and demand has pushed spot market transactions to lower levels.
From the demand side, operating rates in the downstream acrylic fiber sector have not shown significant recovery between June and July. Some small and medium-sized textile enterprises are maintaining low production loads due to insufficient end-apparel orders. The ABS resin sector is also facing inventory destocking pressure from downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles, leading to procurement that is mostly for immediate needs rather than speculative stockpiling. This demand pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
Industrial Impact: Cost Relief and Profit Reallocation
The decline in acrylonitrile prices directly benefits acrylic fiber producers. Acrylonitrile accounts for over 70% of the cost structure of acrylic fiber. Based on the current price differential, the raw material cost per ton of acrylic fiber has decreased by approximately 480 yuan compared to the beginning of the month. For an industry with already thin profit margins, this reduction releases significant profit potential. Some companies in key acrylic fiber production regions such as Zhejiang and Jilin have begun adjusting their pricing strategies, aiming to lock in more orders during this window of raw material cost reduction.
The carbon fiber sector is also worth noting. Although acrylonitrile accounts for a relatively small proportion of carbon fiber production costs, lower raw material prices help reduce precursor production costs, potentially paving the way for carbon fiber price reductions. As the wind turbine blade and pressure vessel sectors are in a critical phase of cost reduction and volume expansion, upstream cost savings may accelerate the domestic substitution of certain mid- and low-end carbon fiber grades.
However, cost relief does not equate to an industry-wide recovery. The end-use textile and apparel market still faces headwinds from overseas inventory destocking and sluggish domestic consumer confidence recovery. New orders for acrylic yarn and blended fabrics are predominantly short-term and small-scale. This means that the profit margin gained from raw material price declines may be partially eroded by downstream customers' demands for price reductions, rather than being fully converted into net profits for acrylic fiber companies.