Acrylonitrile prices have fallen below the 10,000 yuan threshold, adding new variables to the chemical fiber market. According to industry public data, as of July 17, the reference price of acrylonitrile stood at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan/ton on July 1. This marks the first clear break below the psychological 10,000 yuan line since the second quarter. For downstream sectors like acrylic fiber, this means a temporary easing of raw material costs, but whether it translates into sustainable profit recovery depends on the ongoing supply-demand tug-of-war.
Drivers Behind the Price Decline
The core driver of this acrylonitrile price drop is the simultaneous pressure from both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, domestic acrylonitrile plant operating rates remain high, and the steady release of new capacity has increased market circulation. Meanwhile, upstream feedstock propylene prices have softened recently, weakening cost support and opening room for acrylonitrile declines. Demand remains relatively weak, with downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin sectors operating below expectations, limiting effective inventory digestion.
Seasonally, July is a traditional off-season for chemical products, with high temperatures curbing operations at some downstream plants. Data shows that between July 1 and 17, acrylonitrile prices fell nearly 5%, with no clear sign of stabilization. This suggests that the current price level may not yet reflect the market's expected bottom, leaving room for further declines in the near term.
Transmission Effects on the Chemical Fiber Chain
Acrylonitrile is the core raw material for acrylic fiber, so its price fluctuations directly impact production costs and pricing. For acrylic fiber producers, this raw material price drop eases cost pressure and helps improve gross margins. However, acrylic fiber itself faces weak demand—the textile and apparel end-market recovery is insufficient, limiting order growth. Whether cost savings translate into profits depends on end-demand absorption.
Beyond acrylic fiber, acrylonitrile is also used in ABS resin and carbon fiber. ABS resin benefits from lower raw material costs, but demand from appliances and automotive sectors remains tepid, delaying price pass-through. Carbon fiber, with its high technical barriers and rapid capacity expansion, sees limited short-term price impact despite lower acrylonitrile costs.
Regionally, major production and consumption areas like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang show sensitive reactions. Shandong, a key acrylonitrile production hub, has seen some plants adjust ex-factory prices. Processors in East China generally adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying restocking until prices become clearer.
Short-Term Outlook and Risk Notes
Looking ahead, acrylonitrile prices are likely to continue fluctuating weakly. On the supply side, inventory levels remain high, with some plants still under pressure to offload stock. On the demand side, downstream sectors will gradually enter the traditional restocking cycle after August; if orders pick up, prices may stabilize. However, some acrylonitrile plants plan maintenance in August-September; if maintenance scales exceed expectations, supply tightening could trigger a rebound.
For downstream buyers, the current price range offers some attractiveness, but aggressive buying should be avoided. It is advisable to increase safety stocks moderately based on production plans while closely monitoring plant dynamics and upstream feedstock trends. If acrylonitrile prices fall further to the 9,200-9,300 yuan/ton range, it could be a good replenishment window.