Since July, the international cotton yarn market has been undergoing a price reassessment under the dual pressure of rising costs and recovering demand. Export offers from major producing countries—Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia—have risen broadly, with the most significant increases seen in C32S and above ring-spun, compact, and combed yarns under FOB, CNF, and CIF terms. In contrast, adjustments for low-count open-end and coarse yarns have been relatively modest.
Three factors drive this price surge: first, the rebound of ICE cotton futures in early July directly raised raw material cost expectations; second, the textile and apparel exports of Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India saw a month-on-month recovery in May and June, strengthening mills' pricing power; third, the continuous sharp hikes in Indian domestic S-6 spot prices and CCI auction floor prices pushed up the entire South Asian cotton yarn pricing system.
Vietnamese Yarn Gains Edge on Cost Advantage
Within the overall uptrend, performance among origins has started to diverge. According to feedback from a large light textile import-export company in Shaoxing, Vietnamese yarn has seen notably better inquiries and shipments than Indian, Pakistani, and Uzbekistani yarn in the first half of July. The key reason is that Vietnamese mills have been slower to adjust their export offers, and the actual increases are smaller than those of Indian and Pakistani yarn. This gives Vietnamese yarn, particularly in counts C40S and below, a clear cost-performance advantage, making it more attractive to downstream fabric mills and traders.
Geopolitical factors have further amplified this divergence. The breakdown of US-Iran peace negotiations and subsequent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven another sharp rise in crude oil, energy, and chemical prices, and ocean freight rates have also rebounded. Mills in India, Bangladesh, and Malaysia have had to raise their CNF and CIF offers to offset rising raw material, production, and transportation costs. Vietnamese yarn, benefiting from road and rail transport, has gained a relative edge in logistics cost and timeliness, further solidifying its market position.
Port Inventories Decline, Supply-Demand Tightens
On the port inventory front, arrivals of Uzbekistani cotton yarn, Pakistani siro-spun yarn, Taiwanese open-end yarn, and polyester-cotton yarn from Indonesia and Vietnam have weakened over the past half month. Meanwhile, some coastal textile and garment factories have exhibited a short-term "rush-to-export" phenomenon, boosting immediate demand for cotton yarn. The combined effect has led to a steady decline in port cotton yarn inventories.
This indicates that the supply-demand balance for imported cotton yarn is shifting from loose to tight, driven by supply tightening and a pulse of demand. For weaving enterprises reliant on imported yarn, the procurement window may narrow further in the coming weeks, leaving less room for price negotiation.