Acrylonitrile Prices Accelerate Decline, Cost Restructuring Looms for Chemical Fiber Chain

In mid-July, the acrylonitrile market experienced a notable price correction. According to industry public data, on July 17, the reference price of acrylonitrile stood at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 4.79% from 10,083.33 yuan/ton on July 1. This decline represents the largest single-ten-day drop in the past three months, signaling that upstream raw material cost support is weakening at an accelerated pace.

Background

Acrylonitrile is a key intermediate in the chemical fiber chain, with major downstream applications including acrylic fiber, ABS resin, acrylamide, and carbon fiber precursor. The current price drop is not an isolated event. Since late June, acrylonitrile prices have been slowly declining from around 10,500 yuan/ton, with the decline accelerating sharply into July. Market consensus points to supply-side capacity release as the main driver—multiple domestic acrylonitrile units resumed production after scheduled maintenance in late Q2, while downstream demand has not rebounded in tandem.

On the cost side, the price of propylene, the primary feedstock for acrylonitrile, has also weakened recently, eroding cost support for acrylonitrile. Additionally, the volatile downward movement of international oil prices in early July has indirectly dragged down the pricing center of the entire petrochemical intermediate chain. For textile-grade acrylic fiber companies, this means the cost pressure that has been squeezing margins since Q1 is beginning to ease.

Industry Impact

The most direct beneficiaries of falling acrylonitrile prices are acrylic fiber producers. Acrylonitrile accounts for over 80% of the raw material cost in acrylic fiber production. Over the past six months, high acrylonitrile prices compressed the gross margin of the acrylic fiber industry to near breakeven levels. This price drop will directly improve the profit statements of acrylic fiber companies.

However, for upstream acrylonitrile producers, prices falling below the 10,000 yuan/ton threshold mean industry profits are narrowing. According to industry data, the current production cost of acrylonitrile is in the range of 8,500-9,000 yuan/ton. At 9,600 yuan/ton, selling prices are approaching the breakeven point for some high-cost units. If prices continue to decline, it is not inconceivable that some older units may choose to reduce output or shut down.

For the downstream textile end market, the impact is indirect but not negligible. The loosening of acrylic fiber prices may lead to a slight reduction in the cost of blended fabrics, influencing price negotiations for autumn and winter thermal fabrics. For export-oriented acrylic yarn companies, lower raw material costs will enhance their price competitiveness in international markets, especially against the backdrop of intense competition for Southeast Asian orders.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - With acrylonitrile prices still in a downward channel, adopt a "small batch, high frequency" procurement strategy to avoid large one-time price lock-ins that could lead to inventory depreciation. - Monitor unit maintenance schedules in August. If concentrated maintenance occurs, prices may rebound temporarily, providing an opportunity to increase procurement volume. - For buyers of acrylic yarn, request suppliers to pass on raw material cost reductions to finished product prices.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Use the current window of falling raw material costs to renegotiate FOB quotes with overseas clients, aiming to lock in more competitive export prices before the peak autumn/winter order season. - Monitor RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The combination of lower raw material costs and exchange rate movements may further expand export profit margins, but also be cautious of adverse exchange rate movements. - Leverage raw material price trends as a bargaining chip to demonstrate the cost advantages of the Chinese supply chain to Southeast Asian customers, helping to consolidate order shares.