On July 19, the Shengze polyester filament market experienced a round of price increases, with certain FDY and DTY grades rising by 100 yuan per ton. The direct catalyst was the consecutive rise in international oil prices—crude advanced on the night of July 17 and surged in after-hours trading on July 18—which strengthened the cost support from polymer raw materials PTA and MEG, prompting polyester plants to adjust their quotations upward.
Cost Push vs. Weak Demand
According to the latest quotes, several mills including Tongkun Group, Xinfengming, and Shaoxing Tiansheng raised ex-factory prices for semi-dull FDY products (such as 100D/72F, 135D/36F, and 150D/96F) by 100 yuan/ton, while bright FDY and fully dull FDY series remained unchanged. In the DTY segment, prices for specifications from 75D/36F to 300D/96F were flat, indicating that the price hike was concentrated in conventional medium-to-coarse denier FDY varieties.
Notably, despite the price adjustments, most specifications held steady compared to the previous week, suggesting that the mills' moves were more exploratory than a trend reversal. The fabric market is currently in the midsummer doldrums, with weaving mill operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang generally low. Purchases of polyester filament are mainly for immediate needs, with little appetite for stockpiling. This tug-of-war between cost push and demand pull keeps prices fluctuating within a narrow range.
Industrial Chain Transmission: From Crude to Grey Fabric
The impact of oil prices propagates through the chain: crude → PX → PTA/MEG → polyester filament → grey fabric. The current oil rally stems from OPEC+ production cut expectations and geopolitical factors, but its force is partially absorbed by intermediate inventory and capacity. A manager at a medium-sized weaving mill in Shengze noted that grey fabric inventories are at moderate-to-high levels, and terminal apparel orders have not yet shown clear recovery, so the mill is taking a wait-and-see approach to raw material price increases.
Across major polyester filament producing regions—Shengze, Xiaoshan, Tongxiang, and Taicang—price adjustments varied in magnitude and scope. Tongkun and Xinfengming raised prices on coarse denier items, while Shenghong Chemical Fiber and Wujiang First Spinning Mill held their prices, reflecting divergent views on the market outlook.
Short-Term Outlook: Oscillating Upward, but Limited Upside
In the near term, the strong position of PTA and MEG is unlikely to reverse quickly, keeping cost pressure on polyester mills and providing a floor for filament prices. However, downstream demand is unlikely to improve substantially before August, and weaving mill operating rates may remain low. Therefore, the polyester filament market is more likely to see a pattern of 'small steps up, followed by consolidation' rather than a sustained rally.
For buyers, current prices are relatively low but not necessarily the absolute bottom. A strategy of 'batch purchasing and locking in partial long-term contracts' is recommended to avoid being forced to chase prices when costs rise. For foreign trade companies, attention should be paid to the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on export orders and the substitution effect of Southeast Asian weaving capacity on domestic polyester filament demand.