In June 2026, the sentiment index for China's textile and apparel specialized markets showed a modest rebound, yet the structural divergence behind the headline figures holds more analytical value than the index itself. According to the latest monitoring by the China National Textile and Apparel Council's Circulation Branch, the manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index reached 50.07, an increase of 0.34 percentage points. Although both indices moved upward, they failed to cross the 50-point boom-bust line simultaneously—managers remained in contraction territory while merchants barely entered expansion—highlighting differing perceptions of market rhythm among business entities.
Stable Operations, E-commerce as the Sole Bright Spot
From an aggregate perspective, market performance in June showed no dramatic fluctuations. 77.42% of specialized markets reported flat total operating revenue, the logistics shipment volume index edged up 0.64 points to 49.03, and the foot traffic index rose in tandem. This suggests that physical wholesale transactions did not see significant volume expansion, leaving the market in a 'stable but not hot' state. The key factor pushing the merchant sentiment index above 50 came from online channels: the manager e-commerce sales index climbed to 51.61, and the merchant e-commerce sales index reached 50.49, both above the threshold. 22.58% of specialized markets reported increased e-commerce sales month-on-month, while the share among merchants rose to 9.79%. E-commerce is becoming the primary buffer against offline foot traffic bottlenecks for specialized markets.
Profit and Price Pressures Weigh on Merchants
Beneath the surface of modest sentiment improvement, merchants face deepening structural pressures. In June, the merchant sales volume index recovered to 50.14, but the average selling price index stood at only 49.30, and the profitability index at 49.86—both key indicators remained below the boom-bust line for consecutive months. More notably, 18.88% of merchants reported declining selling prices, a sharp increase of 12.03 percentage points from the previous month, while 19.58% saw reduced profits, up 8.62 percentage points. This implies that volume growth is largely driven by 'trading volume for price' rather than genuine demand recovery. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index slipped 0.19 points to 50.63, still above 50, but 6.99% of merchants reported higher costs, a steep 6.99 percentage point rise from May. Cost pressures are shifting from latent to manifest, directly eroding profit margins for small and medium-sized merchants.
Inventory and Store Opening Rates Offer Positive Signals
In contrast to the gloom on the profit side, inventory and store opening indicators point to improving market operations. The inventory index rebounded to 50.00, with 10.49% of merchants reducing stock, up 8.44 percentage points from May, indicating accelerated destocking. On store openings, 6.45% of specialized markets saw an increase in store opening rates, while the share of markets reporting declining foot traffic narrowed from 22.58% to 16.13%. Rental levels remained stable. These metrics collectively suggest that the utilization rate of physical space in specialized markets is undergoing marginal repair, and merchants' expectations for the second half of the year are not entirely pessimistic.
Divergent Forward-Looking Indices: Managers Cautious, Merchants Optimistic
Forward-looking indicators reveal an intriguing 'role reversal.' Managers' sentiment forecast for July stood at 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points month-on-month, while their business environment forecast fell 1.93 points to 50.97. In contrast, merchants' forecasts both improved: the next-period sentiment index rose 0.70 points to 50.84, and the next-period business environment index climbed 0.77 points to 50.84. Managers are more cautious, merchants more optimistic—a divergence likely rooted in differing perceptions of inventory cycles and cash flow rhythms. Managers' caution may signal a lack of strong short-term catalysts, while merchants' optimism could stem from expectations of seasonal summer demand.