In the first half of 2026, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. While the headline figure appears modest, the underlying structural divergence and the sudden surge in June offer more telling insights for the industry.
June Export Surge: A Shot in the Arm from Autumn-Winter Restocking
June exports reached $29.27 billion, a 7.2% year-on-year increase and a 14.3% jump from May, far exceeding market expectations. This late-month spike was driven by overseas buyers' concentrated procurement for the autumn-winter season. Textile exports hit $13.52 billion, up 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM; apparel exports reached $15.75 billion, up 3.2% YoY and a staggering 21% MoM. The sharp sequential rise in apparel indicates that channel destocking is largely complete, with replenishment orders being released in a concentrated manner.
In RMB terms, cumulative H1 exports were 1,012.22 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY, highlighting a significant squeeze on profit margins due to exchange rate fluctuations. However, June alone saw exports of 200.25 billion yuan, rising both YoY and MoM, with the fabric sector performing particularly well. This suggests that real order volumes are expanding despite an unfavorable exchange rate environment.
Structural Divergence: Resilient Upstream vs. Pressured Downstream
The most critical trend in H1 is the stark contrast between upstream and downstream segments. Textile exports (yarns, fabrics, and other intermediate goods) reached $73 billion, up 3.5% YoY, while apparel exports were $72.96 billion, down 0.7% YoY. Although their total volumes are nearly equal, their growth momentum is completely opposite. Detailed data for the first five months confirms this: yarn exports grew 6.6% YoY, fabric exports edged down only 0.5%, finished textile products increased 2.6%, while apparel and accessories fell 1.6%.
The underlying logic is clear: overseas brands are shifting to low-inventory operations, reducing large, long-term apparel orders and instead placing frequent, smaller orders for semi-finished goods like yarns and fabrics to maintain supply chain flexibility. China's complete industrial chain—from chemical fiber, spinning, and dyeing to finished products—offers unmatched delivery efficiency and product quality, forming a core moat for upstream growth. In contrast, the apparel OEM track has low entry barriers and is plagued by capacity relocation and price competition, making a near-term turnaround unlikely.
Uneven Markets: The US as a Single Growth Engine
Overseas markets also show significant divergence. The US market was the biggest growth driver in H1, with the growth rate expanding by 15 percentage points year-on-year. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders stabilized bilateral expectations, and as brands completed destocking, they increased procurement from Chinese supply chains.
Conversely, demand from traditional mature markets like the EU, Japan, and South Korea continued to weaken. The EU is grappling with high energy costs and inflation, dampening consumer spending on apparel; ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea are constrained by regional tensions and rising energy prices, reducing their imports of Chinese textiles and apparel. Additionally, the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East and lower shipping costs provided short-term tailwinds for June's export recovery.