Polyester Costs Drive Polyester Filament Prices Up, Structural Divergence in Summer Textile Raw Material Market

On July 18-19, the two major textile raw material markets of Shengze and Jiaxing witnessed a comprehensive price hike for polyester filament yarn. The direct trigger was the rise in international oil prices on the night of the 17th and the significant surge in oil prices on the 18th. Strong support from polymer feedstock costs prompted polyester plants to raise prices decisively over the weekend, with transaction volumes notably better than the previous weekend.

Variety Differentiation: Fine Denier and Functional Varieties Lead

Looking at sales performance by specific variety, the market shows clear structural divergence. In the semi-dull DTY series, specifications such as 75D/72F, 75D/144F, 120D/192F, and 150D/288F sold well, reflecting sustained downstream demand for high-filament-count and multi-filament yarns. FDY ultra-fine series and fine-denier multi-filament varieties continued to sell well, especially 20D, 30D, 40D/72F, 50D/72F, 75D/72F, and 75D/144F, with downstream purchasing volumes expanding significantly. Notably, the active trading of FDY 130D/36F was mainly driven by increased transactions in long-filament Oxford fabric, indicating that demand changes in end-use applications are directly transmitted to the raw material end. Bright FDY coarse and fine denier series sold well, with sales of specifications above 300D increasing, primarily used for Oxford fabric and decorative fabrics. Fully dull FDY 40D/48F, 48D/48F, and 66D/48F were also relatively active. For POY used in texturing, downstream purchasing became cautious after the price increase, but bright POY 75D/72F and 150D/288F still saw large shipment volumes. POY used for intermingling maintained stable sales without significant fluctuations.

Cost vs. Demand: Short-Term Bullish but Long-Term Concerns

Currently, the textile market is in the midsummer traditional off-season, with overall fabric mill operating rates insufficient. This usually implies weakened demand for raw materials. However, the current price hike for polyester filament yarn contrasts somewhat with fundamentals. The core reason lies in strong cost-side support: PTA and MEG prices have strengthened and risen in the short term, giving polyester plants a strong intention to raise prices under cost pressure. Industry public data shows that polyester staple fiber prices are currently consolidating around 7700 yuan/ton. This reflects that cost factors are currently dominating the market more than demand factors. For buyers, this means polyester filament yarn prices may show a trend of small fluctuations and rising in the short term. However, caution is needed: if end-user demand remains weak, downstream weaving mills will find it difficult to absorb cost increases, potentially leading to further declines in operating rates, which could eventually hurt raw material demand.

Yarn Market: Cotton Stable, Rayon Expected to Adjust

Unlike the active polyester filament yarn market, the yarn market remained relatively calm. On July 18-19, cotton yarn prices were stable, with 32s and J40s demand relatively good, mainly used for air-jet nylon-cotton fabric production, while other specifications traded generally. Polyester-cotton yarn prices adjusted steadily. Polyester-viscose yarn prices were temporarily stable but with low trading volumes. Pure polyester yarn prices increased somewhat, but overall sales were average, with the 45s variety performing relatively better. For rayon yarn, 10s and 30s saw some trading, but other specifications were quiet, with prices largely unchanged. Viscose staple fiber prices adjusted, with a center price around 14,200 yuan/ton. It is expected that rayon yarn prices will undergo moderate adjustments in the future.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Short-term polyester filament yarn prices are supported by costs. Consider moderately stocking fine-denier and high-filament-count varieties, but avoid chasing highs for hoarding to mitigate potential price correction risks. - Monitor order changes in end-use applications like long-filament Oxford fabric; their volume expansion will directly drive demand for specific FDY specifications and can serve as a leading indicator for purchasing decisions. - Rayon yarn prices are expected to adjust; consider postponing large orders until clearer market signals emerge.

For Foreign Trade Companies - When quoting overseas customers, incorporate the recent polyester filament yarn price increases into cost calculations to avoid margin compression from raw material fluctuations. - For export orders of differentiated varieties like fine denier and multi-filament, consider slightly higher quotations as their market demand remains relatively firm. - When signing long-term contracts with polyester plants, include price adjustment clauses to hedge against feedstock cost uncertainty.